Preview articles often feature statistics found at footballstudyhall.com. Check that site out for more information.

Alabama (8-0) at LSU (5-2)

(Saturday, 8:00, CBS)

F/+ Projected Spread: Alabama by 13.5

The #1 team in the country goes to Death Valley at night. Hell. Yes.

When Alabama Has the Ball

The Tide boast one of the best offenses in football. They’re brutally efficient, moving methodically down the field with ease, and they don’t come away from drives empty. Few teams are better at coming away with points once in scoring position, which wasn’t the case for the Bama teams that traditionally struggled in this game. The Tide is at its best keeping the ball on the ground. Starting up front with an OL loaded with star prospects, runners have plenty of room to run into the second level with regularity – Bama ranks 17th in line yards and 5th in % of runs gaining at least 5 yards. QB Jalen Hurts has the TD stats, but sophomore RB Damien Harris is one of the country’s more explosive open field runners. Harris keeps defenses honest. Through the air, the Tide is decent, but it’s not a passing game that will typically carry a team to victory. Hurts averages 7.1 ypp, which is unspectacular but fine. He avoids turnovers and is completing over 60% of his throws. For a freshman, that’s about all you really can demand. One out of every 3 throws attempted by Hurts is headed for Calvin Ridley. Last year, Ridley was one of the best possession receivers around. This year, he’s not quite as valuable because his catch rate has plummeted while his YPC hasn’t moved. That probably has more to do with Hurts than Ridley.

So, what you’re probably wondering is – what are Alabama’s offensive weaknesses? They don’t really have a glaring one, so it’ll take a great defense to really give them problems. Luckily for the home team, that’s exactly what LSU has. Like the Tide O, the LSU D specializes in the efficiency game. You might get a long play or two, but LSU has done an excellent job preventing opponents from marching down the field. Interestingly, they do it by specifically counteracting the things Alabama does so well. They shut down the run, specifically up front at the point of attack. LSU’s dominance extends to the passing game, where they generate pressure and force mistakes. An explosive offense could do some damage, as LSU seems to risk some big plays to maintain their ability to keep you behind the 1st down marker. Hurts has made big plays when forced into passing downs, and Harris is capable of breaking a big run or two. Those moments could be key to Alabama’s success.

This is one of the best offense-defense matchups of the year, and it’ll be a treat to watch.

Players to Watch: RB Damien Harris (697 yds, 1 TD, 7.9 ypp) / DE Arden Key (8 sacks, 1 non-sack TFL, 2 passes defended, 3 forced fumbles)

When LSU Has the Ball

The LSU offense is clearly the sore thumb of the 4 major units on the field. It was so bad early on, it got Les Miles fired. Since then, however, LSU’s offense has recovered a good bit, to the point where they’re now a top 20 offense nationally on the season. Since Ed Orgeron took over as HC, LSU’s offense has performed at a really high level, good enough to make this a matchup worth tuning in to see.

If there’s an aspect of LSU’s offense to be aware of, it’s what you’d guess: Leonard Fournette. LSU ranks 1st nationally in points per play rushing, a measure of explosiveness. The line gets good push, and Fournette breaks away after he reaches the second level.  44.6% of his runs get at least 5 yards, and on those runs, he averages 14.8 yards per carry. Every other time he runs the ball, he’s essentially getting a first down and a half. It has become a devastatingly effective running game. The passing game, on the other hand, is still very much a work in progress. It’s not the complete train wreck some make it out to be – Danny Etling completes over 60% and limits turnovers – but it isn’t a strength, averaging less than 7 yards per play. Still, when an LSU drive stalls out, it’s most likely because they got into too many passing downs.

Alabama has, as always, a great defense, but might there be cracks LSU can exploit? At first glance, yes. Bama is excellent at limiting efficiency, but they’re susceptible to long runs. They’ve given up 27 runs of over 10 yards this year, 3.4 per game. They allowed just 36 last year over 15 games (2.4 per). The last year they allowed 10+ yard runs at this rate was 2010. They’ve already allowed more than they did over the entirety of 2011, and in 2012, they gave up only 28. It’s something that Fournette will need to take advantage of. He’ll need to do it when the down is favorable, which means he may need to do it on 1st downs. This Tide D doesn’t find itself in a ton of 3rd-and-1’s. If they’re relying on Etling to convert too many 3rd downs, LSU could be in trouble against the nation’s most havoc-wreaking linebacking corps. If LSU wins this game thanks to its scoring, it will feature some plays for the Fournette highlight reel.

Players to Watch: RB Leonard Fournette (670 yards, 5 TD, 8.1 ypp) / LB Ryan Anderson (7.0 non-sack TFL, 4.5 sacks, 1 pass defended, 3 forced fumbles)