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Nebraska (7-1) at Ohio State (7-1)
(Saturday, 8 PM, ABC)
F/+ Projected Spread: Ohio State by 14.5
When Nebraska Has the Ball
Let’s just skip right to the point – the Husker O revolves around QB Tommy Armstrong. The running game hasn’t been top 40 at anything beyond getting necessary yardage in short, power situations, and there are several facets of running where they’re not even a top 80 team. Armstrong makes this offense go. He can do that on the ground, and he’s the one facet of Nebraska’s ground game that has worked to an extent. He doesn’t get a ton of yards when he takes off, but he’s been dangerous at the goal line, picking up 7 scores. Nebraska will attack Ohio State through the air, mostly, and when they do, they’ll be looking for big plays. Efficient passing in 7 yard chunks isn’t for Armstrong. He barely completes half his attempts, so it makes sense to be going deep if passes are less likely to connect. Or, perhaps he’s incomplete a lot because he throws deep so much. Regardless of this chicken/egg thing, the passing attack can move the ball downfield with big gains. He makes a lot of mistakes with incompletions and interceptions, but he connects enough to make Nebraska’s offense viable. On the receiving end of those big gains are typically Brandon Reilly (20.8 ypc) and Alonzo Moore (24.9 ypc), two big WRs that stretch the field, with fellow WR Stanley Morgan making catches slightly closer to home. It has worked really well, and Armstrong’s speed probably helps more through the air than it does running the ball: he has been remarkably difficult to sack this season. It’s an offense that seems to enjoy having its back against the wall. They’re mediocre on standard downs but excellent on passing downs. They’re mediocre for the first 3 quarters but top-15 in the 4th.
This Buckeye defense is one of the nation’s best, but Nebraska might be the kind of team that could give them trouble. You look at what Ohio State does well – they prevent efficiency on plays of all kinds, and they rely on their defensive front to make big plays more than their secondary. That works really well against most teams, but that’s not really Nebraska’s style. Ohio State is susceptible to big plays through the air, and they’re not particularly good at sacking the QB. All this points to Armstrong probably having opportunities for some key throws. Granted, due to the volatility of downfield passing, it may not amount to anything, but I have to think that’s Nebraska’s best avenue for success on offense. Have Armstrong get on the move and find one of the fine lawyers at Reilly, Moore, & Morgan.
Players to Watch: QB Tommy Armstrong (1764 payds, 11:7, 53%, 7.7 ypp, 477 ruyds, 7:3, 5.4 ypp) / S Malik Hooker (39 tkls, 4.0 non-sack TFL, 0.5 sacks, 4 interceptions, 3 passes defended)
When Ohio State Has the Ball
Two weeks ago, I thought I knew this offense. But then, it looked bad against Penn State and just kind of ok against Northwestern. Those defenses are good/solid, so it’s not the end of the world, but it’s concerning after the way OSU steamrolled everyone in September. The biggest issue has been finding points when they have the opportunity to do so. In the 24-20 win over Northwestern, the Buckeyes had a 1st down inside NW’s 40 on 6 different drives. They came away with 24 points. That’s disappointing for any offense, particularly one used to such prolific scoring. They need to finish drives the way they used to if they expect to avoid another mid-twenties to low-twenties, one-score affair.
The Cornhusker defense has been quietly good this year, allowing over 20 points just 3 times, and only once allowing an opponent even 24 (35-32 over Oregon). The play-by-play data doesn’t show a particularly great D, though. They allow too many explosive plays, and while they’re good at limiting efficient movement of the football, they’re top-40 rather than, say, top 20. Interestingly, where they thrive is making plays with their backs to the wall. The same situations that have been a bugaboo for the Ohio State offense lately – drives inside the opponent’s 40 – have been a boon for the Husker D. The average offense score 4.67 points on drives where it crosses the 40. Ohio State has averaged 4.0 points on those drives over the last two weeks. Nebraska’s D has allowed an average of 3.59 points on those drives this season. If Ohio State is going to fix its scoring problem, it’s going to have to do so against a team that is already comfortable preventing that from happening. Why is Nebraska good at this? The Huskers have been outstanding on 3rd down this season, and they have enough of a pass rush to put their playmaking secondary in good situations regularly. After seeing its OL get absolutely overwhelmed by Penn State’s non-blitzing pass rush, I can’t think this is good news for Ohio State. If Ohio State plays like it did the last two weeks on offense, I don’t think they can win this game.
Players to Watch: QB J.T. Barrett (1675 payds, 17:4, 63.9%, 6.7 ypp, 600 ruyds, 6:4, 5.5 ypp) / S Nathan Gerry (40.5 tkls, 5.0 non-sack TFL, 0.5 sacks, 4 interceptions, 6 passes defended)
Brent Blackwell
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