2016 College Football Rankings: 11/8/16

ranking the resumes

(Photo: Tony Gutierrez / AP)

This week marks the return of the rankings. They got a little wonky in early October, and I realized that holding off for a few weeks would be easier than explaining the inherent weirdness left and right. It’s November, and it’s time to revisit them.

A reminder – this is a ranking of resumes, not team strength. A higher ranking for team A doesn’t mean it would beat a lower-ranked team B. It just means their catalog of results is a bit more impressive. If you want a ranking of team strength, check out Football Outsiders’ F/+ or ESPN’s FPI, both of which are pretty good at that sort of thing.

Ok, let’s go. Here’s all 128 teams, plus James Madison (there’s one particularly vocal JMU fan that I find endearing) and the top FCS team.

The Bottom

#128 – Fresno State (1-9)

#127 – Buffalo (2-7)

#126 – Rice (1-8)

#125 – Bowling Green (1-8)

#124 – Kansas (1-8)

#123 – Florida International (3-7)

#122 – Massachusetts (2-8)

#121 – Florida Atlantic (2-7)

#120 – Marshall (2-7)

#119 – San Jose State (3-7)

#118 – UTEP (3-6)

#117 – Iowa State (1-8)

#116 – Connecticut (3-7)

#115 – Texas State (2-6)

#114 – Nevada (3-6)

#113 – UNLV (3-6)

#112 – New Mexico State (2-6)

#111 – UL-Monroe (3-6)

#110 – Georgia State (2-7)

#109 – Arizona (2-7)

#107t – Michigan State (2-7)

#107t – Virginia (2-7)

#106 – Miami-OH (4-6)

#105 – Missouri (2-7)

#104 – Purdue (3-6)

#103 – East Carolina (3-6)

#102 – Hawaii (4-6)

#101 – Cincinnati (4-5)

#100 – Tulane (3-6)

#99 – Charlotte (4-5)

#98 – UL-Lafayette (3-5)

#97 – Utah State (3-6)

The Below Average

#96 – Duke (3-6)

#95 – North Texas (4-5)

#94 – Rutgers (2-7)

#93 – SMU (4-5)

#92 – Akron (5-5)

#91 – Illinois (3-6)

#90 – Ball State (4-5)

#89 – Central Michigan (5-5)

#88 – Oregon State (2-7)

#87 – Notre Dame (3-6)

#86 – Georgia Southern (4-5)

#85 – Kent State (3-6)

#84 – Northern Illinois (3-6)

#83 – South Alabama (4-5)

#82 – Syracuse (4-5)

#81 – Oregon (3-6)

#80 – Eastern Michigan (5-4)

#79 – Boston College (4-5)

#78 – Arkansas State (4-4)

#77 – Army (5-4)

#76 – UCLA (3-6)

#75 – California (4-5)

#74 – Arizona State (5-4)

#73 – Southern Miss (5-4)

#72 – UTSA (5-4)

#71 – Vanderbilt (4-5)

#70 – Texas Tech (4-5)

#69 – Idaho (5-4)

#68 – South Carolina (5-4)

#67 – Mississippi State (4-5)

#66 – New Mexico (6-3)

#65 – Old Dominion (6-3)

Better Than Average

Jacob Eason (Photo: Jeff Roberson / AP)
Jacob Eason (Photo: Jeff Roberson / AP)

#64 – Kentucky (5-4)

#63 – Middle Tennessee (6-3)

#62 – NC State (4-5)

#61 – Indiana (5-4)

#60 – Georgia (5-4)

#59 – Maryland (5-4)

#58 – Colorado State (5-4)

#57 – Georgia Tech (5-4)

#56 – Ole Miss (4-5)

#55 – Northwestern (4-5)

#54 – Kansas State (5-4)

#53 – Wake Forest (6-3)

#52 – Memphis (6-3)

#51 – Ohio (7-3)

#50 – Central Florida (5-4)

#49 – Texas (5-4)

#48 – Miami (5-4)

#47 – BYU (5-4)

#46 – Iowa (5-4)

#45 – Air Force (6-3)

#44 – Pittsburgh (5-4)

#43 – TCU (5-4)

#42 – Louisiana Tech (7-3)

#41 – Temple (7-3)

#40 – Western Kentucky (7-3)

#39 – Arkansas (6-3)

#38 – Navy (6-2)

#37 – Appalachian State (7-2)

{James Madison (8-1)}

#36 – Stanford (6-3)

#35 – Florida (6-2)

#34 – South Florida (7-2)

#33 – Wyoming (7-2)

#32 – Tulsa (7-2)

#31 – Baylor (6-2)

#30 – Houston (7-2)

#29 – Toledo (7-2)

#28 – North Carolina (7-2)

#27 – Virginia Tech (7-2)

#26 – LSU (5-3)

The Top 25

#25 – Oklahoma (7-2) – The Sooners have been pretty good, but not as good as we thought they’d be. The low ranking is due to the schedule so far. Oklahoma lacks any kind of impressive win. In fact, the best aspect of the resume is the losses to Houston and Ohio State.

#24 – Minnesota (7-2) – If this were a ranking of team strength, Minnesota might not crack the top 40. But alas, they’re 7-2, with both closes coming by a total of 10 points, and to pretty good teams. Like Oklahoma, the absence of a bad loss fuels their ranking more than any kind of good win. With Nebraska and Wisconsin still up on the schedule, the opportunities for such a win will be there.

(Photo: AP Photo/Don Boomer)
(Photo: AP Photo/Don Boomer)

#23 – San Diego State (8-1) – The loss to South Alabama was inexplicable, and it hurts their ranking a good bit. Since that loss, SDSU has won 5 games by an average score of 36-5.

#22 – Florida State (6-3) – The three teams to have beaten FSU have a combined 3 losses, and two of the losses came by a combined 5 points. They’re on the fringe because they lack a great win. With Ole Miss having a disappointing year, FSU’s best win now looks like the solid handling of South Florida.

#21 – USC (6-3) – One of the losses was to Alabama, a so-far unbeatable team, and the others came to Stanford and Utah, who have a combined 5 losses. So, why does USC edge out FSU? While FSU has better losses, USC has better wins. They have 5 blowout victories and have a better quality win with, and this is nice to type, Colorado.

#20 – Nebraska (7-2) – Saturday went about as badly as a big game could go, but that’s how it can go when you run something of a one-man offense, and that man gets taken away in an ambulance mid-game.

#19 – Utah (7-2) – Both losses are by a single score, and one was to undefeated Washington. Utah lacks a win that wows you, but they could pick up a 2nd moderately decent win (to go with USC) against Colorado.

#18 – Tennessee (6-3) – Two losses were close and the other was to an undefeated Alabama. Tennessee still gets a boost from having beaten Appalachian State, Florida, and Virginia Tech. Since they last played, players have quit and the locker room is in tumult, so they have bigger issues than worrying about their resume. How quickly that all happened, too.

#17 – Washington State (7-2) – The Cougs lost to Eastern Washington and Boise State by a combined 6 points to open the year 0-2, and have since rattled off 7 straight wins, 4 of which were by multiple scores. Mike Leach still has the magic, and Wazzou controls its destiny in the Pac-12.

#16 – Oklahoma State (7-2) – They’re as high as they are mostly due to their win over West Virginia, the only of its kind so far. They’re as low as they are because they lost to Baylor and, unfairly, Central Michigan.

#15 – Colorado (7-2) – There losses (Michigan, USC) are of higher quality than the wins, but they do have 3 blowouts and control their own destiny in the Pac-12. For this program, that’s a pretty awesome step forward.

[Sam Houston State (9-0)]

#14 – West Virginia (7-1) – The schedule has been a fairly easy ride. They’ve faced only one team with 3 or fewer losses, and that team, Oklahoma State, beat WVU by multiple scores. But against their relatively easy schedule, they’ve looked good, with 3 blowouts and two other wins by more than 8 points.

#13 – Auburn (7-2) – 4 outright blowouts, 1 double digit win over Ole Miss, and LSU and Arkansas currently classify as quality wins. One of the losses was to undefeated Clemson, and the other is to a pretty good A&M team. Auburn could really make a jump in a few weeks at the Iron Bowl. Stay tuned.

#12 – Texas A&M (7-2) – They drop out of the top ten on the heels of their loss to Mississippi State, but A&M still has impressive wins like Auburn, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

#11 – Troy (7-1) – No team has beaten Clemson this year. If Clemson is the best team in the country, it’s logically possible that Troy is the 2nd best team, having lost by 6 points at Clemson. Now, I’m not suggesting that’s the case. It almost certainly isn’t. But if two teams play each other and their only combined loss comes to each other, it’s within the realm of possibilities. With better scheduling, Troy is basically undefeated right now. That’s a nice little turnaround from where they were two years ago.

#10 – Boise State (8-1) – The win over Washington State still looks pretty good, and the only loss was by a single score to a good Wyoming team. Unfortunately, Boise will likely stall out around this spot. Their schedule just doesn’t allow for much mobility going forward.

#9 – Wisconsin (7-2) – The losses are to Ohio State and Michigan, and Wisconsin has wins over LSU and Nebraska. That’s a really good 2-loss resume.

#8 – Western Michigan (9-0) – 9-0 is 9-0, and only one opponent (Northwestern in the opener) has managed to play the Broncos within a single score. They’re winning every game and doing so convincingly. They’ll be favored in everything from here on out. We’ll have to see if all the funky Tuesday games catches up to them.

#7 – Penn State (7-2) – Oy, how’d that happen? Upon further investigation, Penn State’s resume is really good at the moment, but it won’t really last. First, the two losses. One is a blowout loss to Michigan, who might just be unbeatable in 2016. The other was close against a middle of the road Pitt squad. The losses aren’t as tidy as Wisconsin’s, but they’re manageable. The wins are impressive, none bigger than the 3 point win over Ohio State. That’s not alone, though. For now, a win over Minnesota is really good, and a win over Temple ain’t bad either. Here’s why I don’t think this will last: Ohio State and Michigan still have to play each other, and no matter what happens. it will hurt Penn State’s placement here. If Michigan wins, Penn State’s victory over the Buckeyes will be less exclusive. If Ohio State wins, then the 49-10 loss they suffered will have been to a Michigan team that, it turns out, is beatable. Minnesota still has a tough end to their schedule, which will likely sap the Lions of another quality win. Right now, the resume is really good. In 3 weeks, that’s not likely to still be the case.

#6 – Louisville (8-1) – They have two aspects of a great team. First, they have blowouts galore – 6, in fact, plus another double digit win. The loss was both close and to an undefeated team. What’s missing are big wins. Florida State is indeed a quality victory, and one achieved in a very big way, but the rest of Louisville’s schedule hasn’t really afforded them to do anything against truly impressive competition. Houston gives them an opportunity in a couple of weeks, but the Cards are going to need things to break their way to rise much higher.

#5 – Washington (9-0) – I didn’t want Washington to be here, but here they are nonetheless. A week ago, when the playoff committee ranked Washington behind A&M, it was a mistake. But that was A&M. My own rankings had Washington tied for #4 with Ohio State. Had I posted rankings last week, I would have broken the tie in Washington’s favor – I subjectively decide tiebreakers and W/L record is often my first choice. But they were close. So why is Washington not getting love from my system or the playoff committee? Yeah, it’s the schedule. Only 3 opponents have 4 or fewer losses, and one of those opponents is Idaho. The win over Utah is Washington’s highest quality win, with the win over Stanford being perhaps the most stylish. But beyond that, it’s a pretty meh lineup. To Washington’s credit, they’re doing what they need to do against that lineup, logging 6 blowouts, but it’s just not enough at this point to push them into the top 4. The good news is that with games against USC, Washington State, and potentially a Pac-12 South Champion, the opportunities for those wins will be plentiful going forward. What’s better, two of the top 4 have yet to play, so Washington won’t be on the outside looking in for long.

The Top 4

(Photo: Rick Osentaski /USA Today Sports)
(Photo: Rick Osentaski /USA Today Sports)

#4 – Ohio State (8-1) – Welcome back to the conversation, OSU. After a rough two weeks that featured a close loss to Penn State and a close win over Northwestern, it seemed as if the Buckeyes were in serious trouble. A 62-3 win over a Nebraska team that had only one previous loss remedied that. 6 of the 8 wins have been blowouts. The biggest reason Ohio State is ahead of Washington? Of the 8 wins, 4 have come against teams with 2 or fewer losses. That’s twice as many quality wins as most teams in this top 25. It’s an impressive slate of wins, and it’s enough to overcome Washington’s undefeated mark against a far less impressive grouping of opponents. Barely.

#3 – Clemson (9-0) – The win over Louisville is huge, and the wins over Florida State, Auburn, and Troy look pretty special as well. It’ll take a huge upset for Clemson to not head to the ACC Championship at 12-0.

#2 – Alabama (9-0) – A&M is Alabama’s highest-quality win, but they have a lengthy list of solid wins over 3-loss teams. 5, in fact. Of their 9 opponents, 7 currently have 4 or fewer losses. That’s a lot of quality wins.

#1 – Michigan (9-0) – Technically, I currently have Michigan and Alabama tied for the top spot, but I put Michigan at #1 because Michigan has been a little more impressive, in my opinion. 6 blowouts – all by over 30 points. 2 other multi-score wins. The only close victory was against a very good Wisconsin team. Two more quality wins against Penn State and Colorado. It’s an impeccable resume, and it should be exciting to see where the Wolverines go from there.

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Brent Blackwell

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