The Rankings Explained

As per annual tradition, I need to explain what my rankings are and, more importantly, what they are not. It’s important, because 99% of dissent I run into with regard to the rankings are from those who simply don’t pay attention to this aspect. So, read this first, unless you read it last week.

What this is NOT: A ranking of how good teams are or are not. I don’t know how good teams are. I can guess based on the few games I can watch each week, but the AP already polls a bunch of people that do the same thing (and are way more pointlessly confident about it). If you think the AP poll stinks and feel the same about the collection of SID afterthoughts known as the Coaches Poll, and you want this same kind of “which team is best” approach from a more analytic angle, I recommend Football Outsiders’ F/+ (which I use regularly here) or ESPN’s Football Power Index. They’re good. Use those, not this. My #7 team should in no way be expected to beat my #23 team if they met on a neutral field just because of their ranking.

What this IS: It’s a ranking of resumes. While F/+ and FPI can do an excellent job of telling you, in a general way, what the best teams are, there’s something we as sports fans know and understand: the best teams don’t always win. And results on the field, while misleading, matter the most. We reward those who win, regardless of whether or not their victory was a fluke. The 2007 New England Patriots may be the best NFL team in history, but the Giants have the Lombardi Trophy. Upsets happen, and they don’t always redefine which team is better. With that in mind, I sought to come up with a way to rank teams’ seasons independent of how good they are. F/+ and FPI can tell you a bit about what may happen in the future, whereas this tries to put some kind of order to that which has happened. I won’t delve deeply into my methodology, but I will make this clear: It’s set up for a 12-game schedule, and keeping that in mind will explain some of the strangeness you encounter here in the early weeks. If you’ve beaten a 1-loss team in late November, that’s pretty impressive. If you’ve beaten a 1-loss team in September, meh. For now, however, they count the same, because I don’t want to bother with re-setting parameters throughout the season. Also, power 5 teams won’t have much of an advantage at this point because they haven’t really played power 5 schedules just yet – that will change with time. And it will look a little strange early on, but last year the same process correctly picked the final 4 playoff teams (in the order they were seeded), so it works at least a little. Ok, I think we’re ready. Let’s go.

The Bottom of the Barrel

#128: Florida International (0-4)
#127: Arkansas State (0-4)
#126: Rice (0-4)
#125: UTEP (1-3)
#123: New Mexico State (1-3)
#123: UNLV (1-3)
#121: Miami OH (0-4)
#121: Northern Illinois (0-4)
#120: San Jose State (1-3)
#119: Charlotte (1-3)
#116: Iowa State (1-3)
#116: Hawaii (1-3)
#116: Massachusetts (1-3)
#115: Bowling Green (1-3)
#114: Florida Atlantic (1-3)
#113: Kent State (1-3)
#112: Old Dominion (2-2)
#110: UTSA (1-3)
#110: Fresno State (1-3)
#109: North Texas (2-2)
#107: Idaho (2-2)
#107: Virginia (1-3)
#104: Illinois (1-2)
#104: Marshall (1-2)
#104: Nevada (2-2)
#101: Georgia State (0-3)
#101: Kansas (1-2)
#101: Louisiana Tech (1-3)
#99: UL-Monroe (1-2)
#99: Texas State (1-2)
#98: New Mexico (1-2)

Not So Good

#96: Syracuse (2-2)
#96: UL-Lafayette (2-2)
#95: Utah State (2-2)
#94: SMU (2-2)
#92: Buffalo (1-2)
#92: Boston College (2-2)
#91: Notre Dame (1-3)
#87: Kentucky (2-2)
#87: Temple (2-2)
#87: South Alabama (2-2)
#87: Wyoming (2-2)
#85: Duke (2-2)
#85: Western Kentucky (2-2)
#81: Middle Tennessee (3-1)
#81: Colorado State (2-2)
#81: Penn State (2-2)
#81: Akron (2-2)
#78: Vanderbilt (2-2)
#78: Connecticut (2-2)
#78: South Carolina (2-2)
#74: Eastern Michigan (3-1)
#74: Oklahoma (1-2)
#74: Northwestern (1-3)
#74: Rutgers (2-2)
#72: USC (1-3)
#72: Arizona (2-2)
#69: Oregon State (1-2)
#69: Pittsburgh (2-2)
#69: East Carolina (2-2)
#65: Central Florida (2-2)
#65: Washington State (1-2)
#65: Ball State (3-1)
#65: Mississippi State (2-2)

Top Half!

#63: Ohio (2-2)
#63: Purdue (2-1)
#61: Oklahoma State (2-2)
#61: Michigan State (2-1)
#59: BYU (1-3)
#59: Tulsa (3-1)
#57: NC State (2-1)
#57: Central Michigan (3-1)
#52: Tulane (2-2)
#52: Appalachian State (2-2)
#52: Missouri (2-2)
#52: Oregon (2-2)
#52: LSU (2-2)
#50: Texas Tech (2-1)
#50: Texas (2-1)
#47: Kansas State (2-1)
#47: Georgia Southern (3-1)
#47: Army (3-1)
#46: UCLA (2-2)
#45: South Florida (3-1)
#44: Auburn (2-2)
#42: Cincinnati (3-1)
#42: TCU (3-1)
#40: Southern Miss (3-1)
#40: Georgia (3-1)
#36: Air Force (3-0)
#36: Ole Miss (2-2)
#36: Maryland (3-0)
#36: Navy (3-0)
#33: Virginia Tech (3-1)
#33: North Carolina (3-1)
#33: Toledo (3-0)
#31: California (2-2)
#31: Colorado (3-1)
#28: Florida State (3-1)
#28: Iowa (3-1)
#28: Troy (3-1)
#27: Indiana (2-1)
#26: Utah (4-0)

The Top 25

#25: San Diego State (3-0, #19 LW)
Week 4: BYE
The reigning MWC champs drop a tad due to their bye week, and it also doesn’t help that with each passing week, we grow more certain that Northern Illinois just isn’t a quality win anymore.
Next: vs. South Alabama

#24: Miami (3-0, #29 LW)
Week 4: BYE
So, if San Diego State dropped due to a bye, why did Miami move up? Miami’s past opponents didn’t have as bad a week. 2 of SDSU’s FBS wins, Cal and NIU, dropped games this weekend. Only one of Miami’s did – FAU. App State won, and Miami’s game results are still really good: their closest game is a 28 point victory.
Next: vs. Georgia Tech

(If I made FCS teams eligible for the top 25, North Dakota State would slot in right here at #23. The next highest would be Albany, tied with USF at #46. The FCS teams are all ranked in my database, but I don’t list them here.)

#23: Minnesota (3-0, #23 LW)
Week 4: def. Colorado State 31-24
Both FBS wins are by 7 points, and neither Oregon State or Colorado State will be banging on the door of the playoffs, but a win’s a win, and one did come against a Power 5 school. The Gophers are probably not long for this section of the rankings, but good job for scheduling some non-conference teams that are both manageable for your squad and not completely cupcake in nature.
Next: vs. Penn State

#22: Arkansas (3-1, #5 LW)
Week 4: lost 45-24 to Texas A&M
It counts as a blowout loss, but the game was pretty tight for 3 quarters. When it went south for the Hogs, it went really far south really fast. That horrible 4th down rushing attempt. That even worse PI call on a ball that landed well out of bounds, uncatchable for anyone under 9’7″. At that point, you could see the game get into Arkansas’ head, and it all just snowballed. Until proven otherwise, the system considers Texas A&M unbeatable, so Arkansas won’t be as harshly penalized for this game until further down the road.
Next: vs. Alcorn State

#21: Georgia Tech (3-1, #18 LW)
Week 4: lost 26-7 to Clemson
Not a huge drop. The Clemson loss wasn’t good, but like Arkansas with A&M, Tech will get some forgiveness until Clemson loses a game. It’s still a generally fine start to the season, and Tech could conceivably still accomplish some big things, even if I’m not really convinced they will.
Next: vs. Miami

#20: Florida (3-1, #14 LW)
Week 4: lost 38-28 to Tennessee
That sucked, and the manner in which it happened was completely surprising. If there are 5 teams in the country I’d generally trust to protect an 18 point halftime lead, Florida, thanks to its defense, would be on the list. But hey, goofy things happen in this sport we love, and UF’s defense, worn out by a completely inept second half offense, finally broke. And maybe Tennessee is the team they’re supposed to be this year. If that’s the case, the loss isn’t all that bad. Except, yeah, Gator fans, I hear you, and I agree – it’s still pretty bad. At least you have a trip lined up to the Vandy Rehab Clinic.
Next: vs. Vanderbilt

#19: West Virginia (3-0, #34 LW)
Week 4: def. BYU 35-32
The wins haven’t been great so far, but 3-0 is still somethin’. College football is more fun when the fightin’ Holgorsens are good enough to wreck things and burn some contender’s couch, and maybe this is one of those years. (please beat Baylor)
Next:  vs. Kansas State

#18: Memphis (3-0, #33 LW)
Week 4: def. Bowling Green 77-3
By far their worst game has been the FCS level opener. Since then, they’ve outscored 2 bad teams, Kansas and Bowling Green, 120-10.
Next:  vs. Ole Miss

#17: Baylor (4-0, #24 LW)
Week 4: def. Oklahoma State 35-24
I still don’t want to talk about this football team in nice ways.
Next: vs. Iowa State

#16: Nebraska (4-0, #2 LW)
Week 4: def. Northwestern 24-13
Last week: You beat Oregon? Wow! This week: Oh, hey, Colorado beat Oregon too, so, uh, never mind. They should be 7-0 when they play Wisconsin, though, so over the next few weeks I’d expect them to move back towards last week’s spot rather than further away.
Next: vs. Illinois

#15: Boise State (3-0, #20 LW)
Week 4: def. Oregon State 38-24
Yeah, it’s Oregon State, but you beat a Pac-12 team by two TDs. Good on ya. Boise’s gonna have to win a ton of games by multiple scores to really impress this year. Their schedule is unimpressive.
Next: vs. Utah State

#14: Western Michigan (4-0, #17 LW)
Week 4: def. Georgia Southern 49-31
The Broncos are essentially, barring any huge upsets, halfway to an undefeated season. Of their 4 toughest expected games, two are in the books and WMU is still undefeated. The next game is one of the tough ones, vs. Central Michigan, but after that, it’s cruise control until a late November date with Toledo.
Next: vs. Central Michigan

#13: Alabama (4-0, #3 LW)
Week 4: def. Kent State 48-0
USC and Western Kentucky both lost, which hurt a tad, and the Golden Flashes weren’t able to offer Alabama a win of enough value to really offset those losses. Bama has plenty of opportunities to rise with big wins down the road, so this is just a blip. They’ll be 5-0 when they play Arkansas.
Next: vs. Kentucky

#12: Washington (4-0, #11 LW)
Week 4: def. Arizona 35-28 (OT)
It was at the end of a pretty exhausting day, but Washington really got scared by Arizona on Saturday night, as the Wildcats took them to overtime. Arizona hasn’t been great this year, so if Washington really is the team the Pac-12 North needs to usurp the Stanford/Oregon oligarchy, they’re gonna need to avoid heart attack games like that. Play like that against Stanford and you won’t have the luxury of maybe pulling yourself together in OT.
Next: vs. Stanford

#11: Ohio State (3-0, #7 LW)
Week 4: BYE
The bye drops them a tad, but they’ll catch back up. Rutgers should be win #4 and blowout #4.
Next: vs. Rutgers

#10: Houston (4-0, #16 LW)
Week 4: def. Texas State 64-3
Only Oklahoma has played them within 21 points, and not even the Sooners could make it a single score game. Houston should remain favored all the way to Louisville, at which point they could easily be 10-0 when they take the field against the Cardinals.
Next: vs. Connecticut

#9: Wake Forest (4-0, #29 LW)
Week 4: def. Indiana 33-28
Oh, the foundation of Wake’s placement is shaky as all hell, but I really hope they can keep it up. Still, we know they won’t. They’ll lose games and be gone forever. Indiana will lose games, taking away Wake’s unique victory. Duke, Tulane – both will lose more, sapping Wake of the value currently attached to those wins. But until they do, we’re all happy to have FBS’ smallest school & fanbase getting a little bit of attention.
Next: vs. NC State

#8: Arizona State (4-0, #15 LW)
Week 4: def. California 51-41
The average total score of a Sun Devil game this year is 83 points, and no one has taken them to overtime. You should probably watch their games, just for the fireworks.
Next: vs. USC

#7: Wisconsin (4-0, #9 LW)
Week 4: def. Michigan State 30-6
By mid-October, we’ll know for sure how close attention to pay to the Badgers. Michigan and Ohio State the next two weeks are a very tall order, but beating Michigan State by 3+ touchdowns makes me more optimistic than I was a week ago (which is still not terribly optimistic, just moreso).
Next: Michigan

#6: Clemson (4-0, #22 LW)
Week 4: def. Georgia Tech 26-7
Thanks for finally showing up to the 2016 season, Clemson. The stage only gets bigger from here.
Next: vs. Louisville

#5: Stanford (3-0, #4 LW)
Week 4: def. UCLA 22-13
Yes, the UCLA game was much closer than the score indicated, as Stanford’s final 6 points were scored on a play in which UCLA was attempting a Hail Mary to win the game. However, UCLA is a pretty solid opponent, and the Bruins could very well wind up playing the winner of this weekend’s Stanford/Washington game in the Pac-12 title down the road.
Next: vs. Washington

#4: Texas A&M (4-0, #8 LW)
Week 4: def. Arkansas 45-24
The impressive thing about A&M is that they’ve beaten UCLA, Auburn, and Arkansas, and they haven’t really looked amazing in any of the games. A&M has been good, though, every time they’ve set foot on the field. As we’ve recently discussed, that’s not unusual for September. Can they keep it going? The Aggies should be 5-0 when they face Tennessee.
Next: vs. South Carolina

#3: Michigan (4-0, #6 LW)
Week 4: def. Penn State 49-10
Michigan is starting 2016 a lot like they started 2015: with decisive, multi-score wins against not-terrible competition.  They opened conference play with an emphatic thumping of Penn State, who had looked pretty competent in each game to that point. There’s a good chance Michigan is the country’s best team, and I’m excited to see what they do this weekend against Wisconsin.
Next: vs. Wisconsin

#2: Louisville (4-0, #1 LW)
Week 4: def. Marshall 59-28
Lamar Jackson is so good, it’s no longer even newsworthy when he accounts for 7 TD in a game. I mean, did anyone REALLY notice him this weekend? That’s pretty incredible. Aside from FSU, the schedule hasn’t been great – that’s what allowed UL to get passed for #1 this week, but when you blow everyone out by 41 points per game (seriously, that’s their average margin), it doesn’t really have to be.
Next: vs. Clemson

#1: Tennessee (4-0, #10 LW)
Week 4: def. Florida 38-28
It may not last long, not with a 3 game slate against Georgia, A&M, and Bama coming up, but for now, UT has had college football’s most impressive season. They’re the only team to beat what looks like a good Virginia Tech team. They’re the only team to beat what looks like a somewhat good Florida team. App State doesn’t suck, and Ohio may be a contender in the MAC (although not a favorite). The VT and UF wins were both by double digits. I think it’s easy to get stuck on the App State game, and it’s true that Tennessee didn’t look good there. But since, the Vols have played like an elite team since. I suppose one could quibble over the Ohio game, but the Vol defense was great in that game. They shouldn’t struggle too badly with a rudderless Georgia squad, but after that have A&M at Kyle Field and Alabama in Knoxville. If the Vols wake up on October 16th 7-0, it will be a colossal failure to not be 12-0 going into the SEC Championship. That’s a big if, of course, and right now I wouldn’t pick Tennessee to win either of those games. But they can’t be in any better position going in than they are right now, owners of the most impressive schedule to date.
Next: vs. Georgia