Georgia at Tennessee Preview

Details

Georgia Bulldogs (4-0)
Tennessee Volunteers (3-1)
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Saturday, 3:30 ET, CBS
Favorite: Georgia -7.5
O/U: 48
Georgia stats
Tennessee stats

 

When Georgia Has the Ball

The 2017 Georgia offense has, so far, been better than its previous iteration. It’s not quite good, relying on big plays more than efficiency (efficiency is more sustainable), but it’s more or less getting the job done. UGA has only a 40.8% success rate (gaining 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd/4th), which ranks 75th nationally. While the offense is coming off its best game of the season against MSU, it still wasn’t particularly efficient. Georgia isn’t a team that is going to march on many 12 play drives per game. They’re making up for it with explosion and drive-finishing. The efficiency/explosion trade-off has been the case regardless of whether the team is running or passing.

When UGA runs the ball, they’re more or less average nationally at getting consistent yardage. They get at least 5 yards on 38.5% of carries, against the national average of 38%. The Dawgs don’t stand out in power situations, and they are too frequently stuffed for no gain. However, when Nick Chubb gets to the second level, he’s coming away with big yardage (as is talented freshman D’Andre Swift). It’s not hard to keep Georgia bottled up, but when the cork comes loose, Georgia makes the most of it.

When it comes to the passing game, it’s the same story – average efficiency and big-time explosiveness. True freshman QB Jake Fromm has been statistically great (7:1 ratio, 9.0 y/a) even if some fans find him a bit too gunslinger-ish. Terry Godwin and Javon Wims are both deep play threats, averaging over 20 yards per catch, while TE Isaac Nauta and the diminutive Mecole Hardman provide options closer to the line. With a true freshman behind center, the mediocre efficiency/high explosion profile isn’t surprising. It makes the Georgia offense susceptible to stalling, but it also makes them dangerous from any point on the field.

Is Tennessee the right team to finally give Jake Fromm some problems?

It’s an interesting matchup, to be sure, because Tennessee’s defense has been really good at one thing this year: preventing explosiveness. Tennessee struggles with allowing efficient progress down the field, but they do a good job of keeping the ball in front of them. It could make for an interesting matchup, with either team finding success in a new way.

The Vols’ run defense has been generally abysmal, allowing far too many successful plays. It’s no coincidence that opponents are running 75% of the time on standard downs against the Vols, although that is certainly skewed by having played Georgia Tech so early in the season. Still, Florida managed 41% success running the ball against Tennessee, and both Indiana State and UMass nearly matched it. When UGA runs the ball against Tennessee this weekend, something has to give. An ground game that struggles with efficiency and relies on big plays is facing a defense that allows efficiency but clamps down on big plays. There are a lot of directions it could go. Perhaps Tennessee overcorrects its efficiency problem and opens the door for those UGA big plays. Perhaps UGA finds more consistent success eating smaller chunks of yardage. Perhaps either unit dominates. It’s a pretty volatile matchup.

Tennessee’s pass defense is a little more predictable, as it is pretty near average all-around. It gets better when offenses are in passing downs, a rarity considering the run defense, as DBs start to get their hands on passes and the pass rush is unleashed. 8 defenders have registered a pass defended, and 8 defenders have registered at least 0.5 sacks. Leading the way is Sr LB Colton Jumper, whose 5.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks lead the team. DB Emmanuel Moseley has already broken up 4 passes, and he’s the type of defender who could take advantage of a bold freshman QB who has so far been rewarded for dangerous throwing decisions.

This matchup is the biggest question mark of the game, because there are a lot of uncertainties here. It’s the fastest and most talented defense Fromm has ever faced (sorry, ND), and in terms of pure talent, the Vols should provide a new test for him. Meanwhile, both teams must be salivating over the run game opportunities. Both should see the opponent as a way to improve their worst tendencies so far.

When Tennessee Has the Ball

For the Vols, it’s been a tale of two offenses. When the team has had a significant talent advantage, they’ve looked pretty good (while they had some serious issues hamstringing the scoreboard against UMass, they still moved the ball fairly well). But against Power 5 defenses (GT, UF), they’ve struggled.

There’s not a ton about the Vols that stands out as good or bad. RB John Kelly has 6 TDs and 450 yards, and he’s a threat once he hits the second level, but is he more of a threat than what you see around the SEC? Not really. He’s viable, but that’s more or less it so far. QB Quinten Dormady has been ok – 6.9 yards per attempt is pretty middle-of-the-pack. Again, not bad, but nothing that stands out as unstoppable.

The bad news is that if you’re looking for an average-ish offense to make strides, the UGA defense is a nightmare opponent to do that against. UGA ranks in the top 10 nationally at limiting both efficiency and explosiveness. Running the ball against UGA has been nearly impossible. Throwing on UGA has been only slightly less awful. Expect a lot of 3rd and long plays. Tennessee has the athletes to convert a few of those, and it’s one area where Georgia has been less than elite, but it’s probably going to take a lot of conversions. Led by ILB Roquan Smith, who leads the team in tackles (and on those plays, opponents have a miniscule 26.9% success rate), the UGA defense has simply been unyielding so far.

If Tennessee expects to win the game, they need to admit that running the ball against Georgia is a fool’s errand. By adjusting their gameplan to more of an underdog strategy, they could catch the Dawgs offguard instead of playing into what UGA wants them to do.

Perhaps Georgia is simply benefiting from an easy schedule so far, and the defense is merely a top 20 defense instead of what appears to be a top 5 unit. While I think Notre Dame is pretty good, it’s certainly possible that Tennessee has better athletes top-to-bottom than any team Georgia has faced so far. The Vols are more battle-tested, as I think the Georgia Tech/Florida combo is probably a tougher combo than Notre Dame/Mississippi State. If UT manages to run the ball with ease, or carve up the secondary, we’ll know for sure. Otherwise, it’s hard to see a real path to success for the Vols on this side of the ball. If they line up and stubbornly run Kelly up the middle on 1st downs, it’s going to be a long day. If Jones gets creative early, and finds passing matchups they can win (I’m specifically thinking of Marquez Callaway), then perhaps the Vols can find the endzone more than once or twice.

Special Teams

UGA brings the country’s best special teams unit (it’s early, so take that with a grain of salt) to Knoxville. UGA isn’t elite in any one area, but the Dawgs are pretty good at nearly everything. The standout so far has been punter Cameron Nizialek, who is averaging 44.5 yards per punt, sports a 68% fair catch rate, a 42% inside20 rate, and 0 touchbacks.

Tennessee isn’t bad on special teams, and they’ve stood out as elite in three areas: Punting, kickoffs, and kickoff returns. Punter Trevor Daniel boots his kicks farther than his counterpart (47.6 avg), and while he has put 2 into the endzone, he has a higher rate of pinning opponents inside the 20 (48%). He’s been quite good. Even better, however, has been kickoff specialist Aaron Medley (65% TB rate) and his coverage team. Equally as impressive has been the Tennessee kickoff return team. Ty Chandler has taken one to the house, and his 52.5 yard average on 2 kickoffs leads the team by less than double digits – Evan Berry has 2 returns for an average of 43.0.

Overall

The path to victory is pretty simple for UGA. Let the D do the heavy lifting, and hopefully strike a few times with big passing plays and improved rushing efficiency to carry the team to a comfortable victory.

For Tennessee, the path to victory is cloudier, and maybe a little reliant on wishcasting. You have to hope Georgia just hasn’t been truly tested yet, for starters. Second, you try to bait or force Jake Fromm into more dangerous throws. He tends to get away with them, but perhaps a ballhawking secondary finally makes the true freshman look like a true freshman. Force UGA to settle for field goals when they get past your 40, field goals that UGA K Rodrigo Blankenship isn’t a guarantee to make. A good defensive effort keeps the game low-scoring and close, and UT relies on winning the field position battle to out-leverage the road team. Mix in perhaps a few big plays on kickoff returns, and maybe the Vols are in position to win this game in the 4th quarter.