The Rankings Explained

As per annual tradition, I need to explain what my rankings are and, more importantly, what they are not. It’s important, because 99% of dissent I run into with regard to the rankings are from those who simply don’t pay attention to this aspect. So, read this first, unless you read it last week.

What this is NOT: A ranking of how good teams are or are not. I don’t know how good teams are. I can guess based on the few games I can watch each week, but the AP already polls a bunch of people that do the same thing (and are way more pointlessly confident about it). If you think the AP poll stinks and feel the same about the collection of SID afterthoughts known as the Coaches Poll, and you want this same kind of “which team is best” approach from a more analytic angle, I recommend Football Outsiders’ F/+ (which I use regularly here) or ESPN’s Football Power Index. They’re good. Use those, not this. My #7 team should in no way be expected to beat my #23 team if they met on a neutral field just because of their ranking.

What this IS: It’s a ranking of resumes. While F/+ and FPI can do an excellent job of telling you, in a general way, what the best teams are, there’s something we as sports fans know and understand: the best teams don’t always win. And results on the field, while misleading, matter the most. We reward those who win, regardless of whether or not their victory was a fluke. The 2007 New England Patriots may be the best NFL team in history, but the Giants have the Lombardi Trophy. Upsets happen, and they don’t always redefine which team is better. With that in mind, I sought to come up with a way to rank teams’ seasons independent of how good they are. F/+ and FPI can tell you a bit about what may happen in the future, whereas this tries to put some kind of order to that which has happened. I won’t delve deeply into my methodology, but I will make this clear: It’s set up for a 12-game schedule, and keeping that in mind will explain some of the strangeness you encounter here in the early weeks. Ok, I think we’re ready. Let’s go.

Bottom of the Barrel

#128: UTEP (1-4)
#126: Rice (0-5)
#126: Charlotte (1-4)
#125: Miami OH (0-5)
#123: Arkansas State (0-4)
#123: San Jose State (1-4)
#122: Florida International (1-4)
#121: Fresno State (1-4)
#120: Florida Atlantic (1-4)
#119: Nevada (2-3)
#118: Bowling Green (1-4)
#116: Massachusetts (1-4)
#116: Georgia State (0-5)
#115: New Mexico State (1-3)
#112: Northern Illinois (1-4)
#112: Marshall (1-3)
#112: Syracuse (2-3)
#109: UNLV (2-3)
#109: Idaho (2-3)
#109: Kansas (1-3)
#107: Iowa State (1-4)
#107: North Texas (2-3)
#106: SMU (2-3)
#104: Kent State (1-4)
#104: UL-Monroe (1-3)
#102: Buffalo (1-3)
#102: Colorado State (2-3)
#100: UTSA (1-3)
#100: Duke (2-3)
#99: Hawaii (2-3)
#98: Illinois (1-3)
#97: Connecticut (2-3)

Not Good

#95: Kentucky (2-3)
#95: Virginia (2-3)
#93: Utah State (2-3)
#93: Oregon State (1-3)
#92: Old Dominion (3-2)
#91: Arizona (2-3)
#90: New Mexico (2-2)
#89: South Carolina (2-3)
#87: Texas State (2-2)
#87: East Carolina (2-3)
#84: Louisiana Tech (2-3)
#84: Vanderbilt (2-3)
#84: Ball State (3-2)
#82: UL-Lafayette (2-2)
#82: Rutgers (2-3)
#79: Akron (3-2)
#79: Missouri (2-3)
#79: Cincinnati (3-2)
#78: Notre Dame (2-3)
#76: Western Kentucky (3-2)
#76: Purdue (2-2)
#74: Boston College (3-2)
#74: Michigan State (2-2)
#73: Central Michigan (3-2)
#71: Oregon (2-3)
#71: Texas (2-2)
#69: Eastern Michigan (4-1)
#69: Temple (3-2)
#66: Wyoming (3-2)
#66: Middle Tennessee (4-1)
#65: Tulane (3-2)

Could Be Worse

#64: Mississippi State (2-2)
#62: Northwestern (2-3)
#62: Ohio (3-2)
#58: South Alabama (3-2)
#58: Kansas State (2-2)
#58: TCU (3-2)
#58: Iowa (3-2)
#57: BYU (2-3)
#53: Oklahoma (2-2)
#53: USC (2-3)
#53: Pittsburgh (3-2)
#53: Tulsa (3-1)
#53: Central Florida (3-2)
#52: Toledo (3-1)
#45: Washington State (2-2)
#45: Army (3-1)
#45: Navy (3-1)
#45: Florida State (3-2)
#45: San Diego State (3-1)
#45: Minnesota (3-1)
#45: Memphis (3-1)
#43: LSU (3-2)
#43: Georgia Southern (3-1)
#41: Appalachian State (3-2)
#41: Texas Tech (3-1)
#39: Georgia (3-2)
#39: Utah (4-1)
#37: Penn State (3-2)
#36: UCLA (3-2)
#36: Southern Miss (4-1)
#34: Oklahoma State (3-2)
#34: South Florida (4-1)
<<<North Dakota State (top FCS)>>>
#33: Georgia Tech (3-2)
#31: Ole Miss (3-2)
#31: Arkansas (4-1)
#29: Virginia Tech (3-1)
#29: California (3-2)
#28: Auburn (3-2)
#27: Indiana (3-1)
#26: Arizona State (4-1)

The Top 25

#25: North Carolina (4-1)
Week 5: def. Florida State 37-35
Since the opening loss to UGA, the Tar Heels have beaten Pitt and Florida State, albeit in close matches. While they wait for Gene Chizik’s defense to show up, the offense is carrying the team, led by QB Mitch Trubisky (76%, 1711 yds, 13:0, 8.9 ypp) and his favorite target, WR Ryan Switzer (83.9% completion, 587 yds, 2 TD, 10.5 per target). UNC’s season hinges on the next two weeks with games against Virginia Tech and Miami. The offense will need to either reach a new level or get some defensive help in order to win those games, most likely.
Next: vs. Virginia Tech

#24: Colorado (4-1)
Week 5: def. Oregon State 47-6
This isn’t smoke and mirrors. Colorado has been pretty good so far. Colorado State isn’t great, but the Buffs dominated them, 44-7. Idaho State is a patsy even by FCS standards, but again, 56-7 is what you need to do against those teams. On the road in Ann Arbor, they played extremely well against perhaps the best team in the country, only to lose 45-28. At Oregon, they won 41-38. Against Oregon State, 47-6. The defense hasn’t been bad, but the offense has been better. The name of the game with Colorado so far is efficiency. Their 50.2% success rate on offense ranks 10th in the country. They’ve mixed big play passing with efficient running, and it’s the reason they’ve been tough to beat. The QB combo of SR Sefo Liufau (71%, 768, 6:0, 9.5 ypp /// 144 ruyds, 1 TD, 5.5 ypp) and FR Steven Montez (63%, 743, 8:2, 8.7 ypp /// 228 ruyds, 1 TD, 8.1 ypp) have been electric, and the Colorado passing attack right now is the nation’s most underrated. Let’s give the defense some love as well, where OLB Jimmie Gilbert has 5.5 TFL, 1 PBU, and 3 forced fumbles. Most of all, it’s just nice having a good, competitive Colorado again. A month ago, would anyone have expected Vegas to have Colorado within a TD on their trip to USC? Right now the Trojans are only a 5 1/2 point favorite. Give Mike MacIntyre an extension, pronto.
Next: at USC

#23: Florida (4-1)
Week 5: def. Vanderbilt 13-7
This has the look of a team that’s losing its focus. After three weeks of dominance, the 2nd half meltdown against Tennessee was a team effort – on the surface, the defense collapsed, but that was brought on by always being on the field due to a prolonged squence of offensive impotence. Against Vanderbilt, the defense resumed its good play, but the offense remained stagnant. While filling in for the injured Luke Del Rio, QB Austin Appleby has maintained good basic stats – 61.1% completion, 3:1 TD/int rate. Unfortunately, he’s a bit too careful with the football. He’s averaging just 5.9 yards per attempt. Normally, that indicates a QB who doesn’t complete enough passes, but it can also indicate a gun-shy QB who isn’t taking enough chances downfield. The latter is true for Appleby. His sack rate is quintuple that of Del Rio, which further tells the story of a guy who values avoiding interceptions more than he does scoring points. After a 19:19 ratio in 11 starts at Purdue, it’s understandable, but a scared QB can cripple an offense, and having the lowest INT rate in the world isn’t necessarily a recipe for success. Among retired NFL QBs, the all-time leader in lowest INT% is Neil O’Donnell. October is a comparatively brutal month for the Gators, so the D will need some help, and until the QB(s) starts threatening defenses downfield to give the running game some space, they’re not going to get it. They even have a player who can make plays downfield – WR Antonio Callaway has a 62.5% catch rate, 11.6 yards per target, and 18.6 yards per catch.
Next: vs. LSU

#22: Wake Forest (4-1)
Week 5: lost to NC State 33-16
Wake’s placement remains a product of a good-looking schedule that probably won’t look as good in a few weeks. Tulane and Duke are 2-loss teams, and Indiana is a 1-loss team. If that’s still the case in November, then Wake’s early wins were special. That probably won’t still be the case in November. Still, Dave Clawson’s team has taken a step forward this season thanks to some solid defense led by S Godwin Igwebuike, who has 4 TFL, 4 PBU, a forced fumble, and an interception so far.
Next: vs. Syracuse

#21: NC State (3-1)
Week 5: def. Wake Forest 33-16
Despite their placement here, September didn’t go as planned. The Wolfpack don’t have the easiest schedule this year, and if they were to reach bowl eligibility, a 4-0 start would have been the likeliest route. With the 33-30 upset loss to ECU, that’s less likely, and now begins the tough part of the schedule, where there might only be 2 remaining opponents that are quantifiably worse than NC State. However, Dave Doeren’s team is playing well and appears to be improved. NC State’s approach is all about leveraging efficiency: they’re the 9th most efficient team in the country on offense, with a success rate of nearly 51%, and the D is allowing a success rate of just 33.6%. They run the ball well and limit the run. They pass it well and limit big plays in the passing game. The schedule hasn’t really been toughened, but so far, so good. QB Ryan Finley (72.4%, 1014, 9:0, 8.2 ypp) keeps drives moving with the help of an efficient, if unexplosive, running game. He can find WR Stephen Louis for big plays (16.4 yards per target; 25.2 per catch) and then focus on TE Jaylen Samuels in the red zone (76.9% catch rate, 4 TD). On defense, the Wolf Pack are all about aggression. DE Darian Roseboro (6.5 TFL), DE Kentavius Street (4.5 TFL), DE Bradley Chubb (5.0 TFL, 1 FF), and LB Airus Moore (5.5 TFL) are constantly in opponents’ backfields, and CB Jack Tocho (1 TFL, 1 INT, 4 PBU) flies to the ball. This big picture may not sustain itself deep into the schedule, which is why I’m highlighting the stars now, but here’s hoping Doeren can get some results to match the improvement we’ve seen.
Next: vs. Notre Dame

#20: Air Force (4-0)
Week 5: def. Navy 28-14
The schedule strength is pretty non-existent, but it’s not going to get any tougher. Air Force may only be a top 50 team (they’re #50 in F/+ right now), but in a league that’s mostly populated with top 100 teams at best, Air Force could very easily cruise to an 11-0 record before facing Boise State in the final weekend. If Air Force drops one of the next 7, Army is the most likely culprit. Still, the Falcons should be favored in all 7, and 11-0 is a real possibility. So, of course, is a top 50 team beating itself one night and inexplicably losing to someone they shouldn’t, like the next opponent.
Next: at Wyoming

#19: Troy (4-1)
Week 5: def. Idaho 34-13
Troy has played well in every game so far, and the ranking system doesn’t dock them too much for having lost a close game to Clemson. I don’t think they’re quite good enough to really cruise through conference play, and I still don’t know if I’d consider them the Sun Belt favorite, but I think it’s relatively safe to say Neal Brown has Troy back on track. The most startling aspect has been Vic Koenning‘s defense. The Trojans have picked off 12 passes already, and a whopping 17 members of the defense have logged a tackle for loss.
Next: BYE

#18: Stanford (3-1)
Week 5: lost to Washington 44-6
We got the Washington we had been waiting on all year, but the Stanford we’d seen just didn’t make the trip. It was an embarrassment, and the next few weeks will determine if it was an isolated aberration or the beginning of a downward trend.
Next: vs. Washington State

#17: West Virginia (4-0)
Week 5: def. Kansas State 17-16
4-0 is great when you look closely at WVU and realize they’ve been kind of unimpressive, as far as undefeated teams go. They’re not bad by any means, but other than the big play explosiveness of WR Shelton Gibson, nothing about the offense has really wowed me so far. Defensively, they’ve mostly just been fine, with CB Rasul Douglas disrupting some plays (2 INT, 4 PBU). Again, this is an all around pretty-good team, but normally there’s something that stands out about an undefeated team in October, and that really hasn’t been the case for the Mountaineers so far.
Next: BYE

#16: Baylor (5-0)
Week 5: def. Iowa State 45-42
If you’re a neutral fan and weren’t rooting for Iowa State on Saturday, you may not have a soul. Alas, Baylor still won, and they have a bye, so they’ll be undefeated again next week.
Next: BYE

#15: Maryland (4-0)
Week 5: def. Purdue 50-7
Is it finally happening? Maryland has worn the “sleeping giant”, “Oregon of the East” crown for several years now, and new HC DJ Durkin seems like a better fit to capitalize on such potential than did Randy Edsall (a bizarre choice even at the moment he was hired). To answer the opening question, I guess it depends on what “it” is. If “it” is defined as Maryland truly becoming the Oregon of the East and making a serious run for the conference title, then no, it isn’t happening. If “it” is simply Maryland making marked improvement for the first time in ages, getting better each week, and finally showing some life in the Big Ten, then it looks like it may very well be happening. The running attack, led by the explosive Lorenzo Harrison (a freshman) and the even more explosive Ty Johnson (a sophomore), is driving the offense and allowing for occasional big plays downfield to receivers DJ Moore and Teldrick Morgan. It’s been good so far. Of course, with the schedule toughening up in October, Maryland may be a fleeting memory of the top 25 in a week or two. The point is, I see what you’ve done, DJ Durkin, and so far, I like it.
Next: at Penn State

#14: Miami (4-0)
Week 5: def. Georgia Tech 35-21
Is Miami the favorite to win the Coastal? Well, that gets into odds, where I think UNC may be favored due to having already beaten Pitt and gotten through their FSU matchup. I don’t think it’s a stretch at this point, however, to say Miami is the Coastal’s best team so far. They’ve beaten up on inferior competition so far, but Appalachian State and Georgia Tech can’t just be lumped in with FAMU and FAU – they’re around average for FBS squads (Tech may be a bit better than average). Miami beat two average-ish FBS teams by a combined score of 80-31, so the results are in line with what you’d expect from a top-shelf team. The question is whether Miami is ready to do more than be atop the 2nd tier of the ACC. This is the week to find out.
Next: vs. Florida State

 

#13: Wisconsin (4-1)
Week 5: lost to Michigan 14-7
The Badger defense is a sight to behold, and TJ Watt (yes, he’s the brother) is the star, with 7.5 TFL and a pass broken up already. CB Derrick Tindal (3 INT, 5 PBU, 1 FF) has been excellent as well. Hell, the whole defense has been quite good. The less said about the offense, the better, but maybe they’ll figure some things out there over the bye week. They need to, with Ohio State coming up next.
Next: BYE

#12: Louisville (4-1)
Week 5: lost to Clemson 42-36
The D let them down against Clemson, but the O still looks world-class. Lamar Jackson‘s weekly stat check is still eye-popping: 2360 yards, 28 TD, 4 TO, and over 8 yards per play rushing and passing.
Next: BYE

#11: Boise State (4-0)
Week 5: def. Utah State 21-10
Meet this year’s Boise, same as any Boise. Good on both sides of the ball, and probably a shoo-in for 10 wins. The only real question is whether they can go 12-0 into the MW Championship game. I think the odds favor an upset somewhere along the way (BYU? Air Force?), but they’ll be favored all the way to the postseason.
Next: at New Mexico

#10: Nebraska (5-0)
Week 5: def. Illinois 31-16
The offense may be the strongest unit, but the defense has shown up to play each week, which is good. QB Tommy Armstrong pretty much is the offense, leading the team in rushing touchdowns (5) and throwing for 1151 yards, a 9:2 ratio, and 8.5 ypp. It’s a havoc-wreaking defense, with DE Ross Dzuris consistently in the backfield, and 4 different DBs have multiple interceptions already.
Next: BYE

#9: Western Michigan (5-0)
Week 5: def. Central Michigan 49-10
The scary thing about WMU is that they’ve seemingly gotten better each time they’ve taken the field. SR QB Zach Terrell (1063, 14 TD, 0 TO, 8.2 ypp) has been excellent, and DE Keion Adams has 8 TFL and a fumble force.
Next: vs. Northern Illinois

#8: Houston (5-0)
Week 5: def. Connecticut 42-14
The Cougars really should cruise to 10-0 before finishing their season with games against Louisville and Memphis. The defense has been particularly good, with OLB Steven Taylor (6.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 FF), DT Ed Oliver (5.5 TFL, 1 PBU), and OLB Tyus Bowser (5.0 TFL, 2 PBU, 1 FF) making plays around and behind the line of scrimmage, and CB Howard Wilson (3 INT) stalking passes downfield.
Next: at Navy

#7: Alabama (5-0)
Week 5: def. Kentucky 34-6
Alabama is probably the country’s best team. You know why.
Next: at Arkansas

#6: Ohio State (4-0)
Week 5: def. Rutgers 58-0
They’ve blown out every opponent and QB JT Barrett has 17 TD to only 3 turnovers. Yeah, they’re good.
Next: vs. Indiana

#5: Washington (5-0)
Week 5: def. Stanford 44-6
Well, that’s more like it. After Arizona took them to OT, I wondered if Washington would be capable of living up to the hype at all this season. They were undoubtedly good, but the kind of performance on either side of the ball that made me think this was a possible playoff contender just hadn’t arrived. On Friday that changed, and it’s time to really familiarize yourself with the Huskies. The offense has been very good, performing at a top 25 level this year. QB Jake Browning has been pretty ideal in his role, completing 71% of his passes for 1114 yards, a 17:2 ratio, and 8.7 ypp. RB Myles Gaskin gets most of the carries, but more impressive has been backup Lavon Coleman, one of the country’s most explosive players so far. WR John Ross (6 TD, 9.9 ypt, 75%) is a reliable chain-mover and red zone target. The diminutive WR Chico McClatcher (4 TD, 19.6 ypc, 73%) tends to be the big play threat. It’s an impressive offense, but the defense has been better, ranking #1 in the country in Isolated Points Per Play allowed, a measure of how well teams limit explosion from opposing offenses. Washington’s defense is so good, it doesn’t have to make the choice many defenses have to make. The Huskies don’t have to choose between high risk, high reward aggression and a bend-don’t-break style of grinding down your opponents’ drives.  If it’s one or the other, it’s the latter – the D has only gotten its hands on 13 passes this year – but they come up with big plays as well: 10 different players have forced a fumble this year, and 10 have made at least 2 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. It’s a stout, disciplined defense, and it’s the biggest reason the Huskies are 5-0 right now.
Next: at Oregon

#4: Clemson (5-0)
Week 5: def. Louisville 42-36
In what is starting to look like the year of the comeback, Clemson survived Louisville’s comeback on Saturday. At one point holding an 18 point lead, up 28-10, Clemson then found itself down 36-28. Collapse appears to be pretty normal this year, but it’s still a dangerous look. Of course, coming back, post-collapse, to win by 6 is still pretty good, especially against a team as good as Louisville. All the focus is on Deshaun Watson, who has been merely good, but the real focus should be on the defense, in particular lineman Christian Wilkins. The 6-4, 310 lb sophomore has 6.5 TFL and 4 pass breakups, making him a force no matter what the other team does.
Next: at Boston College

#3: Texas A&M (5-0)
Week 5: def. South Carolina 24-13
We’ve talked about it for a few weeks, about how A&M always seems to start strong in September and then fade down the stretch. Well, we’ve already seen the performance dip a bit; they were lucky they were playing a team like South Carolina on Saturday. Now it gets serious real fast, with Tennessee coming to town followed by a trip to Tuscaloosa (there’s a BYE in between). Both sides of the ball have been good, with freshman RB Trayveon Williams really standing out as an explosive runner. Trevor Knight has been decent throwing the ball, but he’s been even better after tucking it and taking off. Defensively, they’re aggressive as hell. Myles Garrett has been good (5.0 TFL), but teammates are taking advantage of the extra attention he gets, none more than Daeshon Hall, who leads the team with 8.5 TFL.
Next: vs. Tennessee

#2: Tennessee (5-0)
Week 5: def. Georgia 34-31
For all the crap I give Baylor about their reprehensible coaches, I kind of take it easy on Tennessee. At least Baylor fired theirs. Also, I think I’m worried Baylor may win the Big XII and make a playoff run. I don’t really need to worry about that with Tennessee for another couple of weeks, once they’ve faced both Texas A&M and Alabama. As for this past weekend, I don’t really want to discuss it at length. Suffice to say, good job on avoiding the loss after Jacob Eason tried to will his team to victory despite the protestations of his coaching staff. This team still strikes me as one just good enough to win the East, rather than as a playoff contender. The offense has been uneven, with only WR Josh Malone looking like a star (5 TD, 20.7 ypc, and a 58% catch rate). The defense has been very good, led by JR End Derek Barnett (8.5 TFL, 1 PBU, 1 FF).
Next: at Texas A&M

#1: Michigan (5-0)
Week 5: def. Wisconsin 14-7
5 games for Michigan, 5 great outcomes. 3 were blowouts. Of the 3 blowouts, only one other team has beaten Central Florida at all, and the same goes for Penn State, a fellow Power 5 conference opponent. In the other two games, they beat Colorado by multiple scores, and no other team has beaten Colorado at all. That will probably change, but until it does, they get substantial credit for the win. This week, they beat Wisconsin, giving them a second unique victory (and one that may stand a bit longer). Michigan started strong last year and then faded a bit down the stretch, so they’ll have to prove they can sustain it for a full season, but this team has both accomplished a lot and looked the part of a national championship contender so far, with dominant performances on both sides of the ball nearly every time they’ve taken the field.
Next: at Rutgers