Dalvin Cook — (Photo: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

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Clemson (7-0) at Florida State (5-2)

(Saturday, 8 PM, ABC)

F/+ Projected Spread: Clemson (-15.9)

When Clemson Has The Ball

The Clemson offense hasn’t been as amazing as many predicted, but it’s been good, thanks to one of the nation’s best passing attacks. While not as explosive as Clemson offenses of the past, Deshaun Watson has been a remarkably efficient passer. His receivers are generally reliable, and while the receiving corps may lack star power, it has depth – 8 difference receivers have caught touchdown passes this season. Watson does a nice job getting rid of the football and avoiding sacks, but he’s helped by an all around outstanding offensive line. The line is also to thank for rushing success, as Clemson generally gets good push on most plays. Beyond those 3-5 yards supplied by the OL, the backs haven’t done much at all. However, thanks to the OL, Clemson gets just enough on the ground to keep defenses honest, which is all Watson and the passing game need.

The Tigers will be tested by a Seminoles defense that’s longer on talent than results so far. After giving up 30 points or more in their first 4 FBS matchups, Florida State has improved, allowing just 25 points combined to Miami and Wake Forest. There are a few ways in which FSU is well-suited to give Clemson problems. First and foremost is the pass rush. FSU hasn’t been great at much this year on defense, but they have been really good at sacking the QB no matter the situation (9th in sack rate on standard downs, 13th on passing downs). The primary cause is DE DeMarcus Walker, the Noles’ most disruptive player. If he can put pressure on Watson and disrupt Clemson’s efficiency game, FSU could reap the benefits against an offense that doesn’t make up for losses with huge gains on busted plays. It’s certainly the matchup to watch, as no team in the country has been tougher to notch sacks against on passing downs than Clemson. FSU needs Walker and his fellow linemen to get to Watson, because the defense has been a little all-or-nothing on those 3rd down, passing downs. They get a lot of sacks, but they’ve also been bad on 3rd down defense overall, meaning opportunities to convert will be available if Clemson can keep Walker at bay.

Players to watch: QB Deshaun Watson (1950 yds, 21/8/1 td/int/fu, 7.3 ypp, 309 ruyds, 4.7 ypc) / DE DeMarcus Walker (8.5 sacks, 0.5 non-sack TFL, 3 forced fumbles

When Florida State Has the Ball

While the matchup will be entertaining when Clemson has the ball, this is the prize fight of the evening. Watching Florida State’s top 10 offense take on Clemson’s top-5 defense should be pretty fun. Florida State’s offense is similar to Clemson’s so far, but better. Like Clemson, FSU hasn’t relied heavily on big plays this year, instead scoring at will thanks to efficient ball movement. FSU leverages its offensive situations into winnable ones, always finding themselves in downs which give them options and keep defenses guessing. FSU can run the ball, thanks to offensive superstar Dalvin Cook. While Cook was a breakaway threat last year, defenses seem to be more unwilling to let him get away this year. He’s getting his yards, and he’s still very good, but the 2015 version, for whatever reason, was more dynamic. QB Deondre Francois is a two-way threat, and while he’s solid both passing and running, he’s not yet elite at either. As defenses have tried to keep Cook in front of them, Francois has been able to find more room to work, and he’s been FSU’s most explosive runner. As a passer, Francois is great when he gets rid of the ball. He’s averaging over 7 yards per play (which is good, not great), but he’s doing so with a sack rate near 8% (pretty high). That’s not abnormal for a freshman like Francois. They tend to hold onto the ball too long and try to do too much. He needs to avoid the freshman habits if he’s going to find sustained success against the Clemson defense.

While the Tigers boast one of the nation’s very best defenses, we saw in the Louisville game what can happen when a great offense matches up opposite them. Is FSU as good as Louisville? Probably not, but the Noles can score, so Clemson should be in for another dogfight. The word you always hear about Brent Venables’ D is “aggressive”, and while aggression is fairly common in defense, Clemson’ brand is particularly effective. They defend the pass exceptionally, and they defend the run really well. They get sacks. They prevent big passing plays. They prevent shorter, efficiency-based plays. They’re meticulously well-planned: no defense has been better in the 1st quarter this year, and few are better in the 3rd. They’re an ideal defense in that they produce havoc and create big plays, and they can do so without sacrificing efficiency. Most defenses must choose to an extent, but Clemson has its cake and eats it, too. When looking for a chink in the armor, I found very few ways FSU might be able to score points, and it will require one player getting out of his new habits and back into his old. Clemson hasn’t had many weaknesses so far, but one situation where they might be more susceptible to defensive breakdown is allowing big-play runs on standard downs. The 2015 Dalvin Cook would’ve been the ideal player to take advantage of this. If he can rediscover his big play mojo from a year ago on Saturday, he could deliver some backbreaking plays. I think FSU is going to need big plays from Cook, because slow, methodical drives aren’t the way to go against Clemson. First, you’re unlikely to sustain one for long, and second, even when you do, few defenses are better at turning opponents’ scoring opportunities into nothing – Clemson’s 3.06 points allowed per trip inside the 40 is the 3rd fewest in the country, and FSU has a freshman kicker. Like I said, they need the big play touchdowns.

Players to watch: RB Dalvin Cook (900 ruyds, 7:3 td/fum, 5.7 ypp, 381 reyds, 1 td, 17.3 ypc/12.3 ypt) / DL Christian Wilkins (5.5 non-sack TFL, 3.0 sacks, 4 passes broken up)