jacob-eason — Jacob Eason (Photo: Jeff Roberson / AP)

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Georgia (4-3) vs. Florida (5-1)

(Saturday, 3:3o PM, CBS)

F/+ Projected Spread: Florida (-19.8)

It’s not the most watchable iteration of the rivalry, but the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is still a major college event. It always deserves our attention. As usual, there are stakes beyond bragging rights here. Georgia can try to play spoiler to the Gators, who control their SEC destiny. With LSU looming on the schedule, Florida can’t afford a loss to a mediocre Georgia squad.

When Georgia Has the Ball

Who knows? Georgia has been pretty good offensively (the UNC game). They’ve been mediocre offensively (Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina). They’ve been bad (Vanderbilt). They’ve been really bad (Ole Miss). And, they’ve been historically inept (Nicholls). They’re bad more than they’re good, but it’s hard to write a preview because Georgia has been so inconsistent. We can’t rely on them for anything this season, which carries with it one slight silver lining: we can’t count on Georgia to be bad. However, let’s look for something a little more than that.

Most of the focus this year is on Georgia’s struggles along the offensive line, particularly when run-blocking. The stats paint an interesting picture. Georgia ranks 99th in adjusted line yards, 124th in power success rate, and 107th in stuff rate, but they rank 21st in RB opportunity rate. What does this suggest? Georgia is getting its RBs to the second level more frequently than most teams, but when they don’t, the run goes absolutely nowhere. And this bears out when watching the team. Georgia is averaging 4.5 yards per carry this year, but here’s where YPC can lead you astray. If you run for 4 and 5 yards on every attempt, you’re going to be very successful. That’s not what Georgia does. Let’s say team A runs 10 times for 45 yards. Team B runs 10 times for 45 yards. Pretty much the same, right? No. Team A might have the following sequence: 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5. 10 carries, 45 yards. They keep the chains moving, and it’s helpful. Here’s how a team like Georgia gets its 10/45: -1, 2, 0, 0, -1, 27, 2, 15, -1. Those two big runs are neat, but the other runs are killing drives. It’s why you can’t simply rely on YPC or total yards or any other basic box score stats to tell you the full story.

Back to what Georgia kind of does well. They do get some of their RBs to the second level. Pre-season award darling Nick Chubb, not so much – he draws so much defensive attention, he’s been pretty ineffective this season. However, backups Sony Michel and Brian Herrien have had much better luck, and perhaps their style of running is better suited to the “blocking” of this OL. That’s pretty much it, offensively. Freshman Jacob Eason uncorks two or three beautiful passes a game – and they seriously are beautiful – but he’s inaccurate and somewhat mediocre. He’s a true freshman, so that will improve with time, but “improve with time” isn’t encouraging for Saturday.

Of course, the Gator defense doesn’t need a ton of ink. It’s the same Gator defense we’ve seen for years: really, really good, and always poorly rested due to an offense that can’t get out of its own way. I’m looking for a way Georgia can score on this D, and there aren’t a ton of obvious answers besides “get a whole lot better, really fast”. Florida has struggled with allowing big plays on passing downs, so when Georgia gets into 3rd and long – and they will, a lot, perhaps the strategy should be to let Eason grip it and rip it. Throw it 50 yards and hope for a catch or a flag. This Georgia team just isn’t going to score on Florida if they try to move it 8 yards at a time, unless UGA is suddenly massively improved or Florida is suddenly terrible.

Players To Watch: QB Jacob Eason (1366 yds, 9/5/2 td/int/fum, 54%, 5.8 ypp) / DB Quincy Wilson (1 non-sack TFL, 1 sack, 3 INT, 3 passes defended)

When Florida Has the Ball

It’s a similar matchup – solid defense tired by its teammates’ lack of offense faces an offense that hasn’t held up its end of the bargain. But it’s not nearly as severe in either direction. Florida’s offense is better than Georgia’s, and the Georgia defense, while above average, isn’t close to Florida’s. Still, there’s not a ton to love about this Gator offense. They avoid taking losses on running plays, and they’re above average when it comes to efficient running. The passing game isn’t good, but it avoids sacks. Folks, these are the best things I can find, ok? RB Jordan Scarlett isn’t bad, and WR Antonio Callaway is actually pretty good, averaging over 10 yards per target. Like I said, there’s not a ton to love here.

The Georgia defense should do an alright job keeping Scarlett in check. Georgia ranks in the top 30 against the run. They do an excellent job preventing breakaway runs, and most of that starts up front – only 30.7% of opponent’s rushing attempts have gained 5 yards, the 7th best rate in the country. However, the pass defense has been pretty atrocious, and explosive plays have been an issue. There’s no pass rush, and downfield passes typically find success. Georgia attempts to mitigate this weakness by being ultra-aggressive (or, maybe, the weakness is a byproduct of the aggression, but that seems sub-optimal, so I hope that’s not the case). 13 different Georgia defenders have gotten their hands on a pass, either through INT or passes defended. 7 have forced fumbles. Needless to say, Georgia is trying to end drives via a turnover, because forcing punts hasn’t worked out particularly well. It’s not an ideal strategy, but they get those turnovers enough to justify it as a short-term fix.

So, where’s the mismatch? While Georgia should do a nice job against Scarlett, Callaway might be the difference-maker. He will likely have some big play opportunities. When he does, both he and the Georgia DB’s will be going for the ball and the big play. Whoever comes down with it could make the difference when Florida has the ball.

Players To Watch: WR Antonio Callaway (399 yds, 2 TD, 17.4 ypc, 10.2 ypt, 59%) / CB Malkom Parrish (1 INT, 8 passes defended, 1 forced fumble)