2016 College Football Week 1 Preview

What you need to know for week 1

(Photo: Stuart McNair)

It’s here. Y’all ain’t got time for an intro, so let’s zoom straight into the meat of it.

Storyline To Watch: New Coaches

Week 1 is always about things that are new. New coaches are the biggest things. Well, there are two kinds of new coaches: There are guys you hired because you fired your old guy, and there are guys replacing those who built something good and went on to bigger things. Here are the ones that should be the most interesting in week 1.

  • Kirby Smart, Georgia – No team more boldly declared for a culture and philosophical change than Georgia did when it fired Mark Richt. Under Richt, Georgia was in the National Championship race every 5 years or so (’02, ’07, ’12), so the mandate here is that that’s not frequent enough. It’s been interesting to see Smart play Saban copycat off the field, and so far, in a pretty small sample size, he does seem to have mimicked Saban’s organizational habits, which is by far Saban’s most important and underrated quality. Now it’s time to see what he looks like on the field, which really is where it matters most when it comes to replacing Richt. Richt as CEO was one of the best in the game. To really change things at Georgia, you have to match Richt off the field and top him on it. Saturday we get our first evidence of whether that might happen.
  • Mike Jinks, Bowling Green – When BGSU’s excellent coach Dino Babers left for Syracuse, they replaced him with Jinks, a guy whose college coaching career is pretty easy to sum up – from 2013-2015, he coached running backs at Texas Tech. That’s it. He had been a Texas HS head coach for 8 years prior to that, and while I generally think HS coaches are a little more creative (most have to adapt to personnel they’re given rather than recruiting players), I’m also very wary of hiring head coaches with no coordinating experience at the collegiate level. Babers was fantastic for BGSU, and while I certainly wish Jinks no ill will or consider him specifically unfit for the job, hires like this are the ones that most commonly torpedo a team’s future. Maybe it won’t happen for the Falcons, but if it does, don’t be stunned.
  • Scott Frost, UCF – I, for one, never liked George O’Leary or his brand of football all that much. It wasn’t inefficient or inferior, just kind of boring. Frost was a national championship-winning QB for Tom Osborne and is part of the Chip Kelly coaching tree. UCF football might actually get pretty fun again.
  • Lovie Smith, Illinois – Because it’s Lovie Smith coaching college players, duh.
  • Matt Campbell, Iowa State – The 36 year old is now on his second coaching gig, having turned Toledo into a pretty good MAC school in recent years. Iowa State seems like an odd destination for him. It seems like a tough job, and he may have had a shot at better ones had he waited. Suffice to say, I’m interested to see what he saw in ISU and what the on-field product starts to look like with Campbell replacing the very well-liked but not particularly successful Paul Rhoads.
  • Matt Viator, ULM – The guy was 77-33 at McNeese State, which tells me he knows how to scour Louisiana for hidden talent and then utilize it. Love seeing successful FCS guys get shots at the next level.
  • D.J. Durkin, Maryland – 2 reasons. One, Durkin ran two of the better defenses of the last half-decade, calling the shots for Will Muschamp‘s 2013-2014 Gators, and heading last year’s dominating Michigan D, so it’s nice he’s getting a shot. Two, we’ve heard for years that Maryland is a sleeping giant that could be Oregon East if they got a younger, energetic coach. Well, he’s here. Let’s see.
  • Mark Richt, Miami – Well, obviously.
  • Barry Odom, Missouri – Alma mater hirings are always kind of interesting, especially when it’s a jacked-up ex-linebacker who could probably kill every other SEC coach with his bare hands (though he probably would not touch Will Muschamp due to the fact that Will Muschamp almost certainly carries rabies).
  • Will Muschamp, South Carolina – You really wondering why I’m excited to have Coach BOOM back in charge?
    will-muschamp-pissed-off-gif
  • Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia – The strangest coaching change of the offseason, I just don’t know what to expect from this pairing.
  • Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech – This was the last job that hadn’t changed since I first started following college football. It’ll be weird, but I think we could see a good VT offense again at some point. I like Fuente and think he could do great things here.

 

Games To Watch

(Photo: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
(Photo: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

I’ve done the hard work for you. I looked at every game, and while I don’t know that it’ll live up the #bestopeningweekendevarrrrr hype, it’s pretty certain to be a good one. After careful consideration, I found a whopping 19 games that should be worth either watching or being aware of. Here’s how they rank (higher ranked ones should take precedent for your viewing pleasure if they’re on at the same time).

#19. Colorado State vs Colorado, Friday, 8:05 PM, ESPN: They probably won’t be great teams – Colorado is still a basement dweller and CSU is in what looks like a reload year – but hey, it’s a legit rivalry game. The Rocky Mountain Showdown has taken place 87 times, with the winner receiving the Centennial Cup (Colorado gained statehood in 1876, hence its nickname – “The Centennial State”). They play it at Mile High Stadium in Denver, and last year’s game went into overtime.

#18. Fresno State at Nebraska, Saturday, 8:00 PM, Big Ten Network: It’s not likely to be close, as Nebraska should blow Fresno out – I would project at least a 3 TD win for the Huskers. However, Nebraska found itself in some pretty disappointing situations and moments last year, and there’s talk that this could be the year Fresno starts bouncing back into (slight) relevance.

#17. Western Michigan at Northwestern, Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN U: The Broncos have a shot at a major bowl game this year. They are serious contenders for the MAC, and there’s a non-zero chance they run the table after this game. PJ Fleck is building a mid-major juggernaut in Kalamazoo – they’ve dominated MAC recruiting since he arrived – and this game is likely to be their toughest of the year.

#16. Louisiana Tech at Arkansas, Saturday, 4:00 PM, SEC Network: LaTech should be contenders in the C-USA, and Arkansas, well, Arkansas might be a last place team or an actual contender in the SEC West. I can’t imagine there’s an SEC team with a wider range of outcomes than the Hogs.

#15. Georgia Tech vs. Boston College, Saturday, 7:30 AM, ESPN 2: Tech tries to get its ground-heavy offense back on track in 2016 against the team that had one of the most under-appreciated defenses of 2015. BC’s defense last year was something special, but nobody noticed because the offense was just so, so bad. Also, this game is being played in Ireland, so start your day with some Jameson to set the mood.

#14. BYU vs. Arizona, Saturday, 10:30 PM, FS1: This game could be deceptively fun. BYU has a new coach (Kelani Sitake) and a Heisman-winning OC (Ty Detmer). Arizona has Rich Rodriguez. It’s on neutral ground in Glendale at University of Phoenix stadium. Plus, last year’s barrage of September Hail Marys should tell you that you should always be aware of BYU. And PS – go check out BYU’s schedule. It’s brutal this year.

#13. Rutgers at Washington, Saturday, 2:00 PM, Pac-12 Network: Every August, there arises a sexy preseason pick. This year, it unquestionably seems to be U-Dub. If the Huskies are going to make good on that, this probably should be a blowout. This isn’t a game to watch for the game itself as much as a chance to get a good look at a team that’s supposed to be really good this year. The Huskies were really good last year, so it wouldn’t be new, but just couldn’t get the bounces in close games. But still, Washington is on the mind of the nation this year, so it’ll be interesting to see how they come out of the gate against a non-cupcake team with a new coach.

#12. Missouri at West Virginia, Saturday, 12:00 PM, FS1: This game makes the list more for the quality of game it might wind up being. You’ve got Odom coming home to Mizzou, and Holgo’s West Virginia teams are never starved for excitement. It’s not an important game. It just strikes me as a deceptively watchable one.

#11. Bowling Green at Ohio State, Saturday, 12:00 PM, Big Ten Network: As I mentioned above, Bowling Green is a really good MAC team that made a really risky hire in the offseason. Ohio State has a Heisman contender at QB and somehow isn’t really getting a lot of preseason love this year. A disrespected, pissed-off Urban Meyer is never good for his opponents, you know.

#10. Kansas State at Stanford, Friday, 9:00 PM, FS1: Stanford is pretty loaded, they have a Heisman contender in Christian McCaffrey who probably should have won it last year, and they’re fundamentally sound and fun to watch. They also came out of the gates extremely flat a year ago with some questionably safe decision-making that led to a 16-6 loss to Northwestern. KSU was 6-7 a year ago, which means they’ll probably inexplicably go 10-2 this year.

#9. Appalachian State at Tennessee, Thursday, 7:30 PM, SEC Network: If you can’t tell, I love seeing good teams from mid-majors play potential contenders from the major conferences. Sometimes, they produce some fun upsets. Last year, Toledo beat Arkansas in a field goal-fest. I think Tennessee wins, but App State is a pretty well-oiled machine at this point. The Mountaineers have won 17 of their last 19 games, and one of the two losses was to 2015 Clemson. App State loves national TV opportunities, and it’s not just the 2007 Ann Arbor trip that makes me say that; last year they dominated Georgia Southern in front of a Thursday night audience. They’ll be ready to play. If Tennessee’s ready to play, it won’t matter, but UT’s preparation and coaching hasn’t really been a strong point in years.

#8. Notre Dame at Texas, Sunday, 7:30 PM, ABC: This matchup isn’t great for 2016 football reasons. It could indeed be close, but I’m not sure either is likely to be a serious national contender this year. That said, I love this matchup for aesthetic reasons. Notre Dame playing in Darryl Royal Stadium? Yes, please. Matchups like this are happening because of the playoff. Regardless of what you think of the playoff, this particular trend is a nice side effect.

#7. Oklahoma vs. Houston, Saturday, 12:00 PM, ABC: Both were a huge part of the national picture a year ago. Houston might be better this year but with worse results, seeing as how they were pretty lucky to undefeated as long as they were in ’15. Oklahoma is a national title contender again, so I expect them to beat Houston at this “neutral” site game played in Houston’s NRG Stadium, but if there’s one thing I won’t find myself doing much anymore, it’s completely counting out Tom Herman.

#6. Georgia vs. North Carolina, Saturday, 5:30 PM, ESPN: The Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game is sometimes pretty disappointing and a tad boring, but this year’s should be pretty good. Georgia has a new coach and a 5-star QB who might make his debut on national television against a Gene Chizik defense (which last year was pretty stingy on opening night). Both teams have running backs who should be nationally known and competitive in award season. If a team wins by a few scores, it’s more likely to be Georgia, but this could be a pretty close and exciting game.

#5. UCLA at Texas A&M, Saturday, 3:30 PM, CBS: Option Read’s TJ Alexander listed two players from this game in his top 5 players to watch this weekend, and it’s no surprise why. Both are adored by NFL scouts, and both teams can use this game as a statement game to launch themselves into the national conversation for 2016. The loser may have a tough time clawing their way back.

#4. LSU vs. Wisconsin, Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC: It’s LSU and it’s Lambeau Field. If that ain’t enough for you, I hear poker tournament re-runs are lovely this time of year.

#3. Clemson at Auburn, Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPN: Heisman favorite DeShaun Watson hasn’t exactly been on cruise control in tougher road games in his career. Clemson lost to FSU in Tallahassee 23-17 in 2014. Later they lost 28-6 when Watson was hobbled against Georgia Tech. Last year they blew out Miami and NC State on the road, but those aren’t exactly known as tough environments. At Louisville, Clemson escaped with a 20-17 win. At Syracuse, the game was far more interesting than most expected, with Clemson pulling away late for a 37-27 victory. And finally, against a South Carolina team that was the laughingstock of the SEC last year, a team that had just come off a 23-22 loss to the Citadel, Clemson managed only a 37-32 win in Columbia. Hostile environments are called “hostile” for a reason. And here’s the thing: with all due respect to FSU (though I don’t mind disrespecting any program run by Jimbo Fisher), this is probably going to be the most hostile environment DeShaun Watson has ever faced, and maybe the toughest Clemson has seen in years. Auburn is crazy already. Auburn at night? No thanks. I’d probably rather play at LSU, because at least with LSU you’re undoubtedly going to be prepared for the crazy. At Auburn, the crazy just manages to sneak up on you. I think Clemson and Watson in particular will be fine. Auburn is something like the 73rd team to hire Kevin Steele as its DC, and the previous 72 all let him slip away, which tells you a little something about how important he is. But still, just when we count out Auburn, they seem to be their nastiest. 2010, 2013. Clemson should hope that doesn’t turn into a 3-year cycle.

#2. Ole Miss vs. Florida State, Monday, 8:00 PM, ESPN: Some are penciling FSU into their playoff pictures, but I’m not sure they should even be the favorites to win this game. Both these teams are loaded with talent, and Ole Miss has experience at QB and CB, two spots where it matters quite a bit. FSU, of course, has excellent WR options and the most explosive major conference RB in the country. It’s a great matchup between two really good teams, and neither should assume a Labor Day victory in Orlando. It could come down to a bounce or two.

#1. USC vs. Alabama, Saturday, 8:00 PM, ABC: Yeah, Alabama will probably be the best team in the country this year, but USC is always a threat to be top 10, especially when they now may have some competent coaching for the first time in a while. The game will take place at JerryWorld in Dallas, which only adds to the spectacle of it. And let’s not forget the historical relevance of this matchup, which once played a pretty pivotal role in changing the face of Alabama football (and southern football in general). It’s a great capstone to a great 5-day weekend of football.

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