Storyline to Watch: Elimination Season Begins

Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU, Notre Dame, USC. All 5 would probably like to consider themselves realistic contenders, and all 5 have a non-zero chance of waking up on September 18th with 2 losses. 2 losses isn’t an outright eliminator, but it sure will seem like it. No 2-loss team has played in the playoffs. The last 2-loss team to play in a national title game was LSU in the wacky 2007 season. Most likely, if any of these teams (plus TCU, UCLA, et al.) lose this weekend, 2016 ain’t their year.

Games to Watch

The list is one game shorter than last week, but the big games are so much bigger, we won’t complain.

#24 – Iowa State at TCU – Iowa State is one of the handful of teams that have really made you re-evaluate them seriously after just two weeks. They were never supposed to be a contender or anything, but I thought they’d at least be a little competent. After losing to Northern Iowa and then getting blown out by Iowa, competency may not be on the table f or 2016. After two close shootouts, one of which resulted in a loss, TCU needs something a little more comfortable. The thing to watch here is if 2016 TCU is capable of putting away a significantly worse team early. If not, their Big XII title hopes might be in trouble.

#23 – Duke at Northwestern – Somebody is getting a much-needed pick-me-up here, while the other continues to free fall. Duke has the only win between the two, and it came against FCS North Carolina Central. And it’s not like the schedules have been particularly difficult. Duke followed NC Central with a loss to Wake Forest. Northwestern started with a relatively forgivable loss to a pretty good Western Michigan team, but followed that with a depressing 9-7 clunker to Illinois State. These teams weren’t expected to be great this year, but they both had bowl hopes. The loser might struggle to recover from this start.

#22 – Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech – People love to pick Vandy. Every year, it seems, Vandy’s really gonna make some noise, gonna beat someone they shouldn’t. They’re kings of August, in a relative sense. September begins and they lose 13-10 to a bad South Carolina team. Hey, turns out they’re still Vandy. Vandy has a decent and well-earned defensive reputation, but Georgia Tech already has experience with a team like that – they beat Boston College 17-14 in Week 1. If Tech wins, they’ll be 3-0 heading into a Thursday night home game with Clemson.

#21 – San Diego State at Northern Illinois – San Diego State appears to be a good team this year. They were a good team last year, winning the Mountain West, but it all felt somewhat like a mirage, a team taking advantage of better teams’ mistakes. Northern Illinois, on the other hand, appears to not be the NIU of recent history. It’s been a pretty stable and consistently competitive program for the better part of a decade. Jerry Kill built them, Dave Doeren took them to the next level, and Rod Carey has mostly maintained what Doeren left him. Well, until 2016. The Huskies are 0-2, with a close loss to Wyoming, one of the worst football programs in the same era, and a blowout loss to South Florida. It’s too early to declare the king of the MAC dead, but they couldn’t have imagined a more lifeless start to their season.

#20 – Louisiana Tech at Texas Tech – LaTech is averaging over 35 points per game so far, and now they get to meet the Texas Tech defense!

#19 – Ohio at Tennessee – Probably not a close matchup, but let’s see how Tennessee handles the noon kickoff wedged in between NASCAR Bowl 2016 and the Florida game. Tennessee is a team I still can’t quite figure out, so any additional sample, even if against a bad MAC school that lost to Texas State, is welcome.

#18 – Texas at California – If there’s a hype train that’s overloaded with passengers right now, it’s Texas. The opening win over Notre Dame was thrilling, and they looked like they were supposed to look against UTEP. The Longhorns are loaded with talent and Charlie Strong is a good coach. However, it’s still a fairly small sample size, and it’s too early to start penciling them in for anything big. Cal is one of America’s most comfortable teams in a shootout, so they won’t be fazed by Texas touchdowns. Texas should win, but a Cal upset would not be a huge one.

#17 – Miami at Appalachian State – It’s an interesting game, to say the least, simply because it’s going down in Boone. While comparisons are easy with the ’07 Michigan game, App State’s season opener against Tennessee really didn’t feel the same to me. Early on, App State looked sluggish and mistake-prone. They got out of their funk, but they never really looked great in Neyland except when defending the run. The defense has remained pretty stout, holding what should be a potent Old Dominion offense to a single touchdown. But the point is that jumping on the App State bandwagon because of the Tennessee game may be a bad idea, because that result, in my opinion, had more to do with Tennessee just coming out of the gates completely flat and staying that way for more than 3 quarters of football. Compare that to that Michigan game from years ago, where Appalachian State just showed up to play and whipped Michigan around. Suffice to say, I’m a bit bearish on the Mountaineers, at least compared to the public. We have no idea what Miami is just yet, but we’ll find out in this game. New HC Mark Richt‘s first game against FCS Florida A&M was like every single FCS-opponent game he coached at Georgia: decided by at least 3 touchdowns and never in doubt. They followed that with a 38-10 win over Florida Atlantic, so this will be our first good look at the ’16 Hurricanes against adequate competition.

#16 – South Florida at Syracuse – I find games at the Carrier Dome oddly watchable. South Florida was a team on the rise entering this season and has won its first two games (against admittedly weak competition) by a combined score of 104-37. Syracuse was blown out last week by Louisville, but there’s a chance Louisville is one of the best teams in the country this year. As the Orange adapts to Dino Babers‘ scheme, they’re only going to get better at moving the chains.

#15 – Boston College at Virginia Tech – BC is already 0-1 in conference play, and 2016 appears to be as frustratingly punchless on offense as 2015 was. BC had one of the nation’s best defenses last year, but it rarely was enough to overcome one of the nation’s worst offenses. VT looks to rebound from its loss at the MAACO 500.

#14 – Temple at Penn State – If James Franklin loses this game, I would imagine his seat would be among the hottest in the game. The Nittany Lions already dropped a close one to Pitt, and this would further put them in the backseat of Pennsylvania football programs. It’s not a small game for local recruiting. That said, I do think Penn State beats the team that lost by multiple scores to Army.

#13 – Houston at Cincinnati – The undefeated Houston talk has already begun, but it’s a bit premature. They play Louisville late in the year, and I could see Louisville being favored there. Houston should be the favorite all through their AAC schedule, but if there is a trio of teams who might trip them up at some point in conference play, those teams would be Memphis, Navy, and Cincinnati. Add a Thursday night dynamic to the mix – crazy things happen on Thursdays – and maybe it happens here in week 3.

#12 – Colorado at Michigan – The Bill McCartney Bowl! Colorado’s last National Title winning Head Coach cut his teeth as an assistant for Bo Schembechler in the late 70’s before getting his job with the Buffs. It’s a good time to remember that Colorado team, come to think of it. If you were upset over the gaffe that led to CMU beating Oklahoma State last week, take solace in at least knowing that it probably won’t directly lead to CMU winning a national championship. Unlike, uh, this.

That has nothing to do with this game, of course, but this game isn’t as interesting. Colorado is a little better than we thought they’d be, but we thought they’d be really bad. Michigan appears to be as good as we thought they’d be, and we thought they’d be really good. So instead of winning this game by 35 points, Michigan may only win it by 24 or so.

#11 – Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State – Usually, I think the psychological after-effect of losses is overblown. But I just don’t know how Oklahoma State could focus this week after the way the refs gutted them last Saturday. And with a very good Pitt team coming to town fresh off a tough, emotional, in-state rivalry victory, the Cowboys need to be focused.

#10 – Georgia at Missouri – This may only be a fight for 3rd place in the SEC East, but both teams have some upward mobility in the division. At the very least, it should be a more palatable game than last year’s Super Bowl of Punting.

#9 – Texas A&M at Auburn – Speaking of Texas bandwagon teams, it seems like an annual tradition is getting really excited about A&M due to September results. Looking only at the Aggies’ first 5 games of the last 5 years, plus the start of this season, A&M has gone 23-4 in early games, with the 4 losses coming by a combined 15 points, all to ranked teams (30-29 to #7 Oklahoma State in 2011, 42-38 to #18 Arkansas in 2011, 20-17 to #24 Florida in 2012, and 49-42 to #1 Alabama in 2013). A&M comes out of the gates strong every year. October and November don’t go quite as swimmingly, especially since the move to the SEC, but the A&M Railroad of Hype is always busy early on. Likewise, Auburn stumbles out of the blocks relative to its usual late season performance. Aside from 2014, when the Tigers started 7-1 and finished 8-5, Auburn is the anti-A&M. In the same selection of games (since 2011, 1st 5 of the season), Auburn has gone 17-10. 4 of the losses were by multiple scores. 4 were to unranked teams. Hell, two of their wins were in OT against teams Auburn has no business going to OT with, UL-Monroe and FCS Jacksonville State. Now, having said all that, Auburn will probably win by 3 scores, because football is weird and goofy sometimes. Still, if the trends hold, and if the September Aggies beat the September War Eagles, remember that when it comes to both these teams, September tends to lie.

#8 – UCLA at BYU – In his second game, and first rivalry game, new BYU HC Kalani Sitake went for the win at the end of the game, going for 2 against Utah after scoring what could have been a game-tying touchdown. I love bold plays like that, especially for a team in BYU’s situation, playing a miserably difficult schedule. Take your shots, and recognize your window when it’s open. It didn’t work for BYU, unfortunately, and I hope the less than desirable result doesn’t scare a young coach from similar decision-making in the future. UCLA is probably a bit better, and for the Bruins this will be a nice warm-up for their next game vs Stanford.

#7 – Michigan State at Notre Dame – Has any important, major program seemingly had less participation in the 2016 season so far than Michigan State? A 28-13 win over Furman, annnnnnd… a bye. Exhilarating. This appears to be one of the 3 or 4 toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule (depending on how good Texas is), and having already lost one, this is one the Irish need.

#6 – Oregon at Nebraska – Nebraska is favored in this game for some reason. With wins over Fresno State and Wyoming, Nebraska appears to really have a leg up on winning the Mountain West this year. Watch out, Oregon. Seriously, my projected spreads tend to match up with most games’ Vegas lines pretty closely, but this one is pretty far off. Are we really writing Oregon off after beating UC Davis by only 25 and Virginia by only 18?

#5 – Mississippi State at LSU – If LSU loses this game – and some fans are definitely concerned they will – Les Miles might have a hotter seat than PSU’s Franklin. Mississippi State also won’t love a 1-2 start, so this one is pretty pivotal for narratives deeper into the season for two fanbases that are a little less than thrilled with their coaching staffs.

#4 – USC at Stanford – No team was more disappointing to me in week 1 than USC, but A) it was week 1 and teams often come out flat in the opener, and B) it was Alabama. If USC is going to be righted at all for 2016, it’ll need to start against Stanford. Nice, meaningful Pac-12 football between two of the 3 or 4 (should-be) powerhouses in the conference.

#3 – Florida State at Louisville – This game is going to receive all the excitement, mostly because Louisville hasn’t really been a serious player in the national picture in the past few years, and the other games in the top 4 are all made up of teams we’re all a little tired of talking about. Louisville is, if nothing else, refreshing. And I am pretty much saying they’re nothing else, at least in terms of rootability. Bobby Petrino and Todd Grantham are two of the most unlikable men wearing headsets. Of course, in this game, their unlikability is muted a bit, because they’re just football unlikable. FSU under Jimbo Fisher has drifted toward human unlikability, which really takes things a step further. If you can ignore the #deplorable men calling the plays, maybe you can enjoy the players on the field. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson has been wildly entertaining so far against weak defensive competition, and his counterpart, FSU QB Deondre Francois, appears to be a star. This is a huge game in the ACC, as we’ll find out if Louisville is really ready to assert itself in the Atlantic Division. My gut says they’re not quite there yet, but it will be fun to watch if I’m wrong. With a noon kickoff, there’s not a lot fighting this for your attention, either. A must-watch.

#2 – Ohio State at Oklahoma – This matchup is worthy of Week 1, but I’m glad they held it until now. It’s tough to be in a must-win situation against the Buckeyes, but Oklahoma’s national title hopes pretty much hang on this game (and every subsequent game, obviously). I think we’ll see OU re-commit itself to the running game, which it got away from in the loss to Houston. Most seemed to not be all that optimistic about OSU this year, what with all the talent plucked off the roster by the NFL, but they’ve outscored opponents 125-13 so far, so I’m not AS concerned.

#1 – Alabama at Ole Miss – Get used to seeing the Alabama game in the top spot. They’re pretty obviously the best team around until proven otherwise, and they play a pretty decent schedule. Ole Miss might be a top 10 team in their own right. Alabama isn’t perfect – their run game has struggled a bit, and it culminated with what Nick Saban described as an “ass chewing” of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin:

It’s a real flaw, and it could catch up to Alabama at some point. But the thing is, everyone else they’ll play has a similar flaw or worse. Ole Miss is more than capable of extending Alabama’s ground game frustration. In two games, Ole Miss has already accounted for 8 non-sack tackles for loss. I doubt they’ll top Alabama for the third year in a row, but they’re a talented team playing their biggest game of the year at home, so anything is possible.