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BYU (4-3) at Boise State (6-0)

(Thursday, 10:15 PM, ESPN)

F/+ Projected Spread: Boise State -5.5

When BYU has the ball: The Cougars’ goal is to string together longer drives, rest their defense, and beat you with efficiency. Their success rate of 45.8% is top 30 in the country, and their overall field position game is strong, with an average 6.5 yard advantage over their opponents in terms of where they start their offensive drives. BYU does its damage through a strong running game led by RB Jamaal Williams, who already has 10 TD and could cross the 1000 yard mark in this game. He averages 5.7 yards per carry, and BYU’s offense revolves around the OL’s ability to provide space for him. QB Tayson Hill is more of a threat when he runs (5.9 ypp) than when he passes (5.6). Big passing plays are foreign to the Cougars – no WR with at least 10 targets averages at least 12 yards per catch. BYU moves the ball somewhat well, but they take their time. They’re even ok when forced to pass, ranking 15th in passing downs efficiency, but they’re almost exclusively aiming for the first down line. Unfortunately, efficiency is what the Boise State defense does best, meaning two strengths will match up when BYU has the ball. What’s more, Boise is one of the best teams in the country at defending the run. They’re susceptible to the occasional long gain, but they win most plays at the point of attack. It doesn’t bode well for what BYU prefers to do. Boise’s defense has a different approach to pass defense, where the primary goal is preventing big plays. This is perhaps the window in which BYU might find success – intermediate passing plays, those 10 yard chunks that move the chains and don’t do much else. There’s one other aspect worth mentioning: Boise’s defense tends to start great and get progressively worse as games go on. In the first half, they’re a top 15 defense. In the 3rd Q, they’re top 30. In the 4th, their S&P+ defensive rating is 120th nationally. If you’re still hanging around in the final minutes against the Bronc0s, the tide may turn in your favor.
Players to watch: RB Jamaal Williams (942 yds, 10 TD, 5.7 ypp, 11.4 y/catch) / DE Sam McCaskill (9.5 tfl/sacks, 4 PBU)

When Boise State has the ball: Boise can sling it. While RB Jeremy McNichols has some impressive yardage and TD totals, Boise’s running attack has been somewhat inefficient. The pass game led by QB Brett Rypien, on the other hand, has been what really greases the engine of this offense. When Boise throws, they’re both explosive and efficient. Of their top 5 receiving targets, three have success rates over 60%, four have completion rates over 66%, and three average at least 11 yards per target. That’s really good. As the game continues, Boise takes on the opposite trend of its defense – the O gets better each quarter. This works well for them. As their D becomes more likely to give up a score, they’re more likely to answer that score with one of their own. How does BYU match up? Imperfectly. The Cougars are a top 20 defense when stopping the run, but they’ve been mostly average against the pass. BYU can look good on first down, which is step one to having a good defense. BYU’s problem has been that while they can set up favorable defensive moments, they haven’t been able to capitalize. The Cougars are a top 25 defense on 1st down, but they turn into a bottom 25 team when opponents must throw. This all bodes really well for Boise, a team that is happy to move the ball through the air. One interesting aspect of BYU’s defense is the havoc caused by its linebackers. Cougar linebackers have registered a tackle for loss, pass defended, or fumble forced on 9.9% of its plays, more than double the national rate for linebackers. They’ll need big plays from those LBs to have a chance against Boise.
Players to watch: QB Brett Rypien (1622 yds, 12:3, 62.2%, 8.6 ypp) / LB Fred Warner (40.5 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 INT, 4 pbu)