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NC State (4-2) at Louisville (5-1)

(Saturday, 12 PM, ABC)

F/+ Projected Spread: Louisville -12

When NC State has the ball: This is the matchup that won’t get quite as much attention, considering NC State’s offense will be the worst of the main 4 units on the field Saturday – and Louisville’s D might be the 2nd worst. That doesn’t mean it’s bad. It’s not – the UL defense has been top 25 quality so far, and they will easily handle an ‘ordinary’ effort from the Wolfpack offense. I always look for something the offense does well, and with NC State, it’s a little tough to find. They’re not outright terrible at much, and they resemble an average FBS team in most areas, but there’s not much that stands out as a true strength. They’re somewhat efficient, but not remarkably so. The biggest positive for NC State is linked to a big negative. Here’s what I mean: NC State is one of the better offensive teams in the country on passing downs, 2nd downs, and 3rd downs. So why don’t they have a top-tier offense? The Wolfpack has been pretty dreadful on standard downs/1st downs. If NC State were relegated to the Conference USA, they’d still be bad on 1st downs compared to their conference mates. The Wolfpack offense consistently digs itself into holes. It does a much better job climbing out of those holes than most teams do, but it’s not a good thing to be good at the same way it’s not good to be your best when down by 14 points. The Cardinal defense is generally pretty good, but it does have some weaknesses. First, if you can get a drive going against them, odds are it’ll carry to the endzone – Louisville ranks 102nd in points allowed on drives inside the 40. Running on Louisville has been easier than passing on Louisville, but that may have to do with the fact they’ve held large leads in so many games. The Cardinals can get after the passer, and like NC State, they’re at their best on 2nd and 3rd downs. One interesting aspect of UL’s defensive play – they play really well at the beginning of halves and then get worse from there. Their 1st and 3rd quarter defensive S&P+ rankings are #7 and #6 respectively, compared to 2nd and 4th quarter rankings of #56 and #57. It’s an uphill battle for NC State, and unfortunately for the Wolfpack, Louisville matches up well to stop the things they do well. To win this battle, NC State will need to do what they haven’t really done all year – run the ball well on 1st down to set up better 2nd and 3rd down situations. If they rely on clawing back on 2nd & 9 or 3rd & 12, it’s going to be a long afternoon.
Players to Watch: WR Stephen Louis (359 yds, 1 TD, 22.4 ypc, 12.4 ypt, 55%) / LB James Hearns (4.5 sacks, 2 PBU, 4 forced fumbles)

When Louisville has the ball: Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson. What else do you need to know? Louisville still has what is likely the best offense in the country led by one of the best players in the country. NC State, on the other hand, isn’t Clemson, but they’re very good. They’ll have to be at their best to win this side of the battle. I expect the Wolfpack to contain RB Brandon Radcliff – run D is a big strength for them – but even good run D’s can struggle with improvisational quarterbacks like Jackson. Also, NC State’s good defensive metrics are no doubt inflated from getting to face Deshone Kizer and the Notre Dame offense in a hurricane, a 10-3 final. If the Wolfpack looks good in this game, it won’t shock us, but there are some cracks in their defensive resume so far. They nearly pulled off the upset last week against Clemson, so it’s not out of the question, and the defensive front has been a nice job of making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Still, I think things may need to break NC State’s way in a few areas, like turnovers, to keep this within two scores. Louisville is really, really good, and they’ve had time to rest and prepare for this game.
Players to Watch: QB Lamar Jackson (1806 yds, 15:4, 58.2%, 8.6 ypp, 884 ruyds, 15:1 td:fum, 8.5 ypp) / DE Bradley Chubb (5 sacks, 3.5 non-sack TFL, 1 forced fumble)