curtis-samuel — Curtis Samuel (Photo: Eleven Warriors)

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Northwestern (4-3) at Ohio State (6-1)

(Saturday, 3:30 PM, ESPN)

F/+ Projected Spread: Ohio State (-21.4)

As Ohio State comes off a dispiriting loss to Penn State, they try to reclaim their playoff hopes against Northwestern. The Wildcats sit in 2nd place in the Big Ten West, but having already lost to 1st place Nebraska, they can’t afford to lose any more games in conference play. Ohio State still controls its destiny to an extent, but for both teams, this is a must win game if a conference title berth is in the cards.

When Northwestern Has the Ball

There’s not a lot Northwestern does particularly well on offense, so we should be able to quickly hit the high points. They’re pretty good in power running situations. In short yardage downs, even when the defense knows they’re running, they tend to have success, thanks to the running of 220 lb QB Clayton Thorson. When Thorson passes, he has decent success rates. They don’t break many long plays, but he can usually get enough yards to make the next down a manageable one. The sophomore does a good job avoiding turnovers, though he takes too many sacks. In the red zone, WR Austin Carr is the go-to target, hauling in 9 TD passes already. Northwestern uses misdirection and space better than most offenses. Also, they’re a threat to score before the offense even takes the field – kickoff return man Solomon Vault has 29.6 yards per return, one return TD, and a cool name. Thorson left the last game with an upper body injury, and he’s “probable” for Saturday. Northwestern needs him to play, because nothing else has worked on offense.

Ohio State’s loss to Penn State wasn’t the fault of the defense (the go-ahead TD was a returned blocked field goal). Other than the Wisconsin game, the Buckeye D has been pretty solid this year. They allow a few too many big plays, but it’s very hard to string together a long drive against OSU. It’s one of the country’s most aggressive defenses, and that aggression starts up front. The DL has been magnificent. It ranks 15th in havoc rate (% of plays with a TFL, turnover, or defended pass), 2nd in adjusted line yards allowed (a measure of how much rushing yards the lines are responsible for), and 1st in stuff rate (% of runs that ended at or behind the line of scrimmage). Northwestern already struggles with the running game, so there’s no reason to think they’ll suddenly find success against Ohio State. The problem is that Ohio State is also really good against the pass, especially against the kind of attack Northwestern brings to town. The Buckeyes have been burned by some longer plays, but the one thing teams haven’t done successfully is methodically move the chains through the air against Ohio State. Long plays are the way to beat this defense, and that’s not something that Northwestern has done much. The Buckeye defense also stands out as well-conditioned. They play better as the game goes on.

Players To Watch: WR Austin Carr (720 reyds, 9 TD, 14.4 ypc / 9.7 ypt) / S Malik Hooker (29 tackles, 3.5 non-sack TFL, 0.5 sacks, 4 INT, 3 passes defended)

When Ohio State Has the Ball

This preview is written with the assumption that Ohio State’s offense will show up in this game. They showed up for the first 6 weeks, but the Penn State game was all kinds of worrisome. The OL’s wholesalae inability to pass protect in the waning stages of the game was a massive concern for a team with playoff plans. Even including the misfire last week, the offense still rates as one of the better offenses in the country, although it might merely be top-20 instead of the top-5 Urban Meyer may be accustomed to. It’s a methodical offense that excels at moving the chains in 10 yard chunks. There isn’t a better running attack in the country at doing that precise thing. The Buckeyes rank 2nd in rushing success rate (% of plays that gain enough yards to stay out of passing downs), 3rd in adjusted line yards (average yards the OL is responsible for), 1st in opportunity rate (% of runs where the RB gains at least 5 yards, giving him the opportunity for big plays), 1st in power success rate, and 1st in stuff rate (lowest % of plays stopped at or behind the LOS). The one thing the running game has lacked is breakaways for long TDs, but they haven’t really needed that outside of the loss. The running game keeps the chains moving. The passing game has been a work in pro-, well, it’s been work. J.T. Barrett, on the surface, has stats you want to see – he throws for TDs, avoids interceptions, and while it’d be a bit much to say he avoids sacks, he doesn’t run into an egregious number of them. Yet still, Ohio State has been mostly mediocre when throwing the ball. The WR’s either aren’t getting open or Barrett is unable to find them. Either way, when 44% of your passes are thrown to running backs and tight ends, that seems to be a bit of a problem. That’s a lot of checking down. RB Curtis Samuel has more catches (37) than leading WR Noah Brown has targets (28). When Ohio State finds itself in passing downs, it often gets in trouble because there’s nobody available except Samuel. That’s how a game can wind up unexpectedly close like last week.

If Northwestern has a bread and butter, it’s their defense. It’s not an elite unit, but they typically play well enough to give the offense opportunities. Unfortunately, they don’t match up particularly well with the Buckeyes. The run defense is better at preventing long plays (#6 nationally) than they are at preventing efficiency (67th in success rate allowed). The pass D may be good enough to at least hold serve with Barrett’s downfield attack, but it won’t matter if Ohio State averages 6 or 7 yards a run. If the Wildcats can get their opponent into passing down situations, they’ll be in good shape. Ohio State already isn’t great when passing is forced, and Northwestern is pretty good defensively in those situations. They’ll really make a game of this if the Buckeyes can face a bunch of 2nd and 8’s or 3rd and 6’s. But again, I don’t know how they’ll get to that point. There’s a highway to success for the Wildcat D, but they may not be able to find the on-ramp.

Players To Watch: RB Curtis Samuel (527 ruyds, 4 td, 1 fum, 8.2 ypp / 471 recyds, 3 td, 12.7 ypc, 10.5 ypt) / S Godwin Igwebuike (53.5 tackles – team lead, 4 non-sack TFL, 1 INT, 6 passes defended, 1 forced fumble)