It’s time.

Ok, maybe it isn’t. However, many teams are a quarter of the way through their regular season (some, like Hawaii, are even further along), and the rankings are at least starting to look a little bit like something. So, here we are.

Read this first

As per annual tradition, I need to explain what my rankings are and, more importantly, what they are not. It’s important, because 99% of dissent I run into with regard to the rankings are from those who simply don’t pay attention to this aspect.

What this is NOT: A ranking of how good teams are or are not. I don’t know how good teams are. I can guess based on the few games I can watch each week, but the AP already polls a bunch of people that do the same thing (and are way more pointlessly confident about it). If you think the AP poll stinks and feel the same about the collection of SID afterthoughts known as the Coaches Poll, and you want this same kind of “which team is best” approach from a more analytic angle, I recommend Football Outsiders’ F/+ (which I use regularly here) or ESPN’s Football Power Index. They’re good. Use those, not this. My #7 team should in no way be expected to beat my #23 team if they met on a neutral field just because of their ranking.

What this IS: It’s a ranking of resumes. While F/+ and FPI can do an excellent job of telling you, in a general way, what the best teams are, there’s something we as sports fans know and understand: the best teams don’t always win. And results on the field, while misleading, matter the most. We reward those who win, regardless of whether or not their victory was a fluke. The 2007 New England Patriots may be the best NFL team in history, but the Giants have the Lombardi Trophy. Upsets happen, and they don’t always redefine which team is better. With that in mind, I sought to come up with a way to rank teams’ seasons independent of how good they are. F/+ and FPI can tell you a bit about what may happen in the future, whereas this tries to put some kind of order to that which has happened. I won’t delve deeply into my methodology, but I will make this clear: It’s set up for a 12-game schedule, and keeping that in mind will explain some of the strangeness you encounter here in the early weeks. If you’ve beaten a 1-loss team in late November, that’s pretty impressive. If you’ve beaten a 1-loss team in September, meh. For now, however, they count the same, because I don’t want to bother with re-setting parameters throughout the season. Also, power 5 teams won’t have much of an advantage at this point because they haven’t really played power 5 schedules just yet – that will change with time. And it will look a little strange early on, but last year the same process correctly picked the final 4 playoff teams (in the order they were seeded), so it works at least a little. Ok, I think we’re ready. Let’s go.

PS: Because it’s early, there are many ties.

So Far, So Bad

#128: Arkansas State (0-3)
#127: Iowa State (0-3)
#125: Rice (0-3)
#125: Hawaii (1-3)

#124: Old Dominion (1-2)
#122: Miami OH (0-3)
#122: Virginia (0-3)
#121: Northern Illinois (0-3)
#119: Florida International (0-3)
#119: Idaho (1-2)
#117: UNLV (1-2)
#117: Illinois (1-2)
#114: Georgia State (0-3)
#114: Florida Atlantic (1-2)
#114: Kansas (1-2)
#113: New Mexico State (1-2)
#110: Bowling Green (1-2)
#110: Buffalo (0-2)
#110: UTEP (1-2)
#106: San Jose State (1-2)
#106: UL-Monroe (1-2)
#106: Fresno State (1-2)
#106: Syracuse (1-2)
#102: Kent State (1-2)
#102: North Texas (1-2)
#102: Charlotte (1-2)
#102: New Mexico (1-2)
#100: Massachusetts (1-2)
#100: Duke (1-2)
#99: Kentucky (1-2)
#98: Marshall (1-1)
#97: Temple (1-2)

Hey, You’re Not The Worst!

#94: Nevada (2-1)

#94: Utah State (2-1)
#94: UTSA (1-2)
#93: UL-Lafayette (2-1)
#87: Middle Tennessee (2-1)
#87: Eastern Michigan (2-1)
#87: Ole Miss (1-2)
#87: Louisiana Tech (1-2)
#87: Oklahoma (1-2)
#87: Boston College (1-2)
#86: Purdue (1-1)
#84: Central Florida (1-2)
#84: Colorado State (2-1)
#83: South Alabama (1-2)
#81: Washington State (1-2)
#81: Wyoming (2-1)
#79: Arizona (2-1)
#79: Vanderbilt (1-2)
#78: Texas State (1-1)
#73: Western Kentucky (2-1)
#73: Tulane (1-2)
#73: SMU (2-1)
#73: USC (1-2)
#73: Appalachian State (1-2)
#70: Northwestern (1-2)
#70: Rutgers (2-1)
#70: Ohio (1-2)
#67: Connecticut (2-1)
#67: Tulsa (2-1)
#67: Auburn (1-2)
#65: NC State (2-1)
#65: Ball State (2-1)

Above Average

#61: Texas Tech (2-1)
#61: Oregon State (1-1)
#61: Penn State (2-1)
#61: Mississippi State (1-2)
#56: Akron (2-1)
#56: Kansas State (1-1)
#56: South Carolina (2-1)
#56: Notre Dame (1-2)
#56: Florida State (2-1)
#54: Virginia Tech (2-1)
#54: Southern Miss (2-1)
#52: Iowa (2-1)
#52: Missouri (1-2)
#51: Air Force (2-0)
#47: TCU (2-1)
#47: Cincinnati (2-1)
#47: Oregon (2-1)
#47: Colorado (2-1)
#44: Troy (2-1)
#44: North Carolina (2-1)
#44: Texas (2-1)
#41: LSU (2-1)
#41: Maryland (3-0)
#41: BYU (1-2)
#39: Michigan State (2-0)
#39: Georgia Southern (3-0)
#37: Pittsburgh (2-1)
#37: East Carolina (2-1)
#34: Toledo (3-0)
#34: Navy (3-0)
#34: West Virginia (2-0)
#33: Memphis (2-0)
#29: Oklahoma State (2-1)
#29: UCLA (2-1)
#29: Miami (3-0)
#29: Wake Forest (3-0)
#26: Army (3-0)
#26: Indiana (2-0)
#26: Utah (3-0)

The Top 25

#25: California (2-1) – I don’t suspect we’ll see Cal here much deeper into the future, so, suffice to say, nice to see ya, thanks for dropping by, and thanks for clamping down on that Texas hype train a bit.
Next: vs. Arizona State

#24: Baylor (3-0) – This is gonna happen this year, isn’t it? Sometimes the universe spares those who shouldn’t be spared, it seems.
Next: vs. Oklahoma State

#23: Minnesota (2-0) – The Gophers beat Oregon State and blew out their FCS opponent. It’s not a particularly exciting start, just one that went pretty much like it should have.
Next: vs. Colorado State

#22: Clemson (3-0) – There’s one Sports Information Director, or maybe a cheeky coach, who still thinks Clemson is the #1 team in the America. You may be wondering why, but you shouldn’t. They totally deserve that vote. Against former National Champion Auburn, Clemson gutted out a tough, tough road victory. At the time, Clemson became only the 5th visiting team to win at Jordan-Hare Stadium in the last 7 games there (and only Texas A&M has won there since Clemson did)! That’s right – they did what Idaho and San Jose State and, more recently, Arkansas State, could not. And they did so with profoundly bold decision-making. With a 6 point lead, 40 seconds on the clock, and the ball at Auburn’s 17 yard line on 4th down with 4 to go, Dabo Swinney did the math and made the only call you could: run the ball up the middle. Oh, naysayers probably pointed out that a 33 yard field goal almost certainly wins the game, but that’s if you have a sure thing as a kicker. Clemson K Greg Huegel was only 2 for 2 in the game at that point, and he had not yet attempted one from exactly 33 yards – his makes were from 30 and 40. Besides, he was only named to the ACC’s second team in 2015 postseason award season; if he were the next Morten Andersen, I think he would’ve made the first team. So, Clemson ran the ball for 2 yards, Auburn got the ball back, and Auburn was unable to score despite putting 7 quarterbacks on the field at once. Don’t know if you know, but the origin of the name Dabo is an old Swahili word meaning “calculated not with numbers”.

Ok, if that doesn’t convince you, how about game 2? Clemson had to play host to Troy, one of the toughest teams in the land. There’s not a state more synonymous with football than Alabama, and that’s exactly where Troy is located. Just like Auburn. Seriously, just crown Clemson already. Troy came into this game averaging 57 points per game (they beat Austin Peay 57-17), and after they faced Clemson, it was down into the low 40’s. Sure, Troy went 4-8 last year, but consider how tough their schedule was. They had to play Georgia State, a bowl team! One of the losses was at home to Idaho, but Idahoans don’t travel across the country unless they’re gonna really wreck things. Idaho native Dirk Koetter went to Tampa Bay for a new job and bam! The boss is fired, and Koetter takes his place. They sent a Senator to Washington who said he never drank because he was Mormon, and he was arrested in 2012 for DUI. The guy’s name is Crapo. Mike Crapo. That is his actual name. The Republican Party used to generally dominate election season, but then they nominated an Idahoan named Sarah Palin to be VP. And the further away from Idaho Idahoans get, the harder they wreck it: Bowe Bergdahl? Yeah, he’s from Idaho. So lay off Troy, ok? Clemson beat Troy by 6 points. And yes, Troy should’ve had a 99-yard fumble return TD, but the refs disagreed, and Clemson scored a TD on the next play. But why live your life in the details? Clemson beat Troy, and not everybody beats Troy (Austin Peay, for example). They even scored 30 points in the game, something that only Southern Miss has also been able to do this year!

If you’re not convinced by the Auburn game or the Troy game, have you even taken a look at the South Carolina State game? Clemson won 59-0! SC State has been held to less than 20 points only 6 times since the beginning of the 2015 season, guys. Before Clemson, the last team to score 50 or more points on SC State was Louisiana Tech way back in early September of 2016. The last team to shut out SC State was Central Florida, and that was even earlier in September of 2016!

So listen, if you’re one of these people wondering why Clemson has a #1 vote in the polls, polls which frame the national discussion about which teams are and aren’t worthy, you need to look closer, and you’ll see what type of team Clemson really has been this year.
Next: vs. Georgia Tech

#21: South Florida (3-0) – 5 games into last season, Willie Taggart had a 7-22 record at USF. Two of the wins (and one loss) came against FCS teams. Hailed at the time of his hiring as a perfect fit at USF, Taggart was on the hot seat. Since that point, the Bulls are 10-2, with losses to a pair of very good teams last year, Navy and Western Kentucky. Taggart’s job seems safe again, and even better, USF is playing really well. The schedule hasn’t been great, but USF is averaging 49.7 ppg with only 19 allowed. Well done.
Next: vs. Florida State

#20: Boise State (2-0) – They whipped UL-Lafayette and beat Pac-12 Washington State to open the season. Nice start.
Next: vs. Oregon State

#19: San Diego State (3-0) – They blew out their FCS sacrificial lamb, which is pretty much all you can do without penalty in this system. They beat Cal, and after Cal’s win over Texas, that might wind up being a somewhat impressive win, though I’m still in wait-and-see mode on the Bears. Beating NIU by 14 this weekend is a nice result as well, though the same caveat applies – NIU has a decent reputation, but this version hasn’t been good at all. SDSU is the reigning Mountain West champ,  and they should be favored in every remaining regular season game. If 12-0 Boise State faces 12-0 San Diego State in the Mountain West title game, well, we could only be so lucky.
Next: vs. South Alabama

#18: Georgia Tech (3-0) – Nobody ever seems to have a more boring September than Georgia Tech. They usually make up for it, for better and worse, in October, but their Septembers mostly consist of them beating bad teams or losing to good ones. Ho hum. This year sees Clemson sneak onto the September schedule, so at least this changes this week.
Next: vs. Clemson

#17: Western Michigan (3-0) – WMU beat their FCS opponent 70-21, and they’re 2-0 against Big Ten competition. There are 4 remaining tricky games, and three are lined up for the next three weeks – Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, and Northern Illinois, who I’m still giving a little bit of reputation credit to by calling them ‘tricky’. After that, it should be fairly smooth sailing to game 12 vs. Toledo, which is likely to be their toughest game this year. PJ Fleck has been destroying the MAC in recruiting over the past few years, so this team is poised to be a force.
Next: vs. Georgia Southern

#16: Houston (3-0) – It seems low, but Oklahoma did them no favors by losing to Ohio State (the same way OU did Ohio State no favors by losing to Houston). They haven’t really had another chance to impress, beating Lamar 42-0 and Cincinnati 40-16. They should be favored in each game until game #11, Louisville, but they’re not a cinch to go undefeated. Still, Tom Herman‘s crew has to be thrilled with its start.
Next: vs. Texas State

#15: Arizona State (3-0) – They let UTSA play them too closely, but they have a blowout over an FCS team and a multi-score win over a Big XII team, so that’s pretty good for the first 3 games.
Next: vs. California

#14: Florida (3-0) – If Georgia Tech games have been boring, Florida games have been coma-inducing. Every game has been a comfortable win, but against 3 of the worst teams they could possibly schedule, that’s not remarkable. Still, they’re doing what they should be doing against UMass, Kentucky, and North Texas. Florida fans can wake up this weekend, thankfully.
Next: vs. Tennessee

#13: Central Michigan (3-0) – Lol. Yeah, Oklahoma State should probably be here, but hey, Oklahoma State should also probably know the rules too. If you knew enough to correct the refs, you probably aren’t 2-1.
Next: vs. Virginia

#12: Georgia (3-0) – Two wins in three games against Power 5 teams would likely be enough to place a team in the top 10, maybe even top 5. However, the Nicholls game drops UGA several spots. Missouri had already lost (by more than a single point), which didn’t help either. Still, most Georgia fans have to be pretty pleased with 3-0 considering how the team has actually looked so far.
Next: vs. Ole Miss

#11: Washington (3-0) – 3 games, 3 blowouts. Unfortunately, only one was a Power 5 team, and another was an FCS opponent. Still, the Huskies have been as impressive as you can be against that competition.
Next: vs. Arizona

#10: Tennessee (3-0) – Yes, the App State win was ugly. And yes, the Ohio win wasn’t exactly a looker, though UT had no real issue with them late. But let’s not discount a blowout win over Virginia Tech too much either. It was a big win, and it showed how good Tennessee was capable of being.
Next: vs. Florida

#9: Wisconsin (3-0) – Winning ugly seems to be a common theme among some of these teams, and Wisconsin held on for dear life this weekend against lowly Georgia State. But before that, the start was great, with a win over LSU and a blowout of Akron.
Next: vs. Michigan State

#8: Texas A&M (3-0) – They have an identical resume as Georgia, with one win over FCS competition and two over Power 5 opponents. The difference is that A&M did what you should do against the FCS team, beating Prairie View A&M 67-0. Good start for the Aggies, making this September like every September.
Next: vs. Arkansas

#7: Ohio State (3-0) – 3 games, 3 blowouts. And they have an edge on Washington because one wasn’t against an FCS opponent. This team looks locked and loaded, an aspect missing from the squad at times last year.
Next: vs. Rutgers

#6: Michigan (3-0) – 63-3 over Hawaii, 51-14 over Central Florida, 45-28 over Colorado. Impressive offensively, and maybe as expected defensively.
Next: vs. Penn State

#5: Arkansas (3-0) – Early season wonkiness in the system right here, Arkansas is elevated by the fact that Texas State hasn’t lost to anyone else yet. Yet. Still, the shootout win over TCU was pretty cool, and Arkansas is a somewhat palatable SEC West team to see doing well.
Next: vs. Texas A&M

#4: Stanford (2-0) – Both games were against Power 5 teams, and Stanford won both by multiple scores.
Next: vs. UCLA

#3: Alabama (3-0) – In case you missed the explanation under the section that said READ THIS, I’ll take this opportunity to say this – I think Alabama is probably the best team in the country. But USC has already lost to someone else, and the someone else beat Ole Miss before Bama got to them (and beat them by more). So, #3 is all you’ve earned through 3 weeks, Bama.
Next: vs. Kent State

#2: Nebraska (3-0) – 43-10 over Fresno, 52-17 over Wyoming, and then they beat Oregon 35-32 this weekend. That’s two blowouts, one Power 5 win, and two unique wins (Wyoming and Oregon have not lost to anyone else). There’s no way it lasts, but so far, so good.
Next: vs. Northwestern

#1: Louisville (3-0) – I’ll be honest. Besides restlessness, the other reason I decided to release my rankings this week was because I was pretty interested in Louisville’s placement. They’re #1 in FPI, and their lead over Nebraska in my rankings is pretty commanding. That’s remarkable for only 3 games. But it’s a great resume so far. 70-14 over Charlotte is at least an FBS opponent, while most teams have relied on blowouts over FCS teams. 62-28 over Syracuse gives them a blowout over a Power 5 team, and this weekend’s 63-20 win over FSU gave them another. They’ve been pretty incredible so far, led by superstar Lamar Jackson. I won’t underestimate DC Todd Grantham’s potential to lose a game at some point, and I really don’t know if the talent level is strong enough team-wide to overcome the grind of a full season and the injuries that come with it, but so far, Louisville has been the country’s most impressive team.
Next: vs. Marshall