Storyline To Watch: Conference Play!

We’re not fully into conference mode yet, but there are 17 power conference games this weekend which will affect the conference races. By next weekend, it’s mostly all we’ll have, and this weekend segues us into it. The SEC, Pac-12, and Big Ten in particular have some nice games to offer. It should be fun.

Ranking the Games

This week, we’re trying this out. EVERY game gets ranked.

#59. Western Illinois at Northern Illinois
#58. Central Arkansas at Arkansas State – Both NIU and Arkansas State were considered contenders in their conferences this preseason. After miserable starts, they each get FCS sacrificial lambs to help get them back on track.

#57. Nicholls at South Alabama – Some Georgia fans will tell you Nicholls is quite a force now that they’ve added one moderately talented interior lineman that was on a TV show. The likelihood is strong that those fans are telling themselves this to feel better about UGA’s performance in that game.

#56. Gardner-Webb at Ohio
#55. Wagner at Boston College
#54. Missouri State at Kansas State
#53. Delaware State at Missouri – Here’s 4 more FCS/FBS games, none of which seem moderately interesting.

#52. North Texas at Rice – These two are a combined 1-5, which seems like a good start for them. This has the same Dallas vs Houston appeal of SMU/Houston, but without any talent or anyone that cares.

#51. Idaho at UNLV – Seems like it should be a Mountain West game, but this is your weekly reminder that Idaho is actually in the Sun Belt. Also, a weekly reminder is necessary that Idaho still plays football and is in the FBS (and is coached by a Petrino).

#50. Wyoming at Eastern Michigan – In a general sense, I’m rooting for Wyoming. I like what Craig Bohl built at North Dakota State, and I really want to see it work at the FBS level, especially some place like Wyoming. The Cowboys are 2-1 so far this year, so that’s already a decent step forward.

#49. UTSA at Old Dominion – Don’t watch this game unless you bet money on it. Also, in order to avoid having to watch it, you probably shouldn’t bet money on this game.

#48. UL-Lafayette at Tulane – The Ragin’ Cajuns are 2-1 so far. Maybe this is the year Mark Hudspeth rebuilds his market value as a coaching prospect for the next level.

#47. Central Florida at Florida International – Combined record of 1-5, so this game’s pretty important for bowl hopes for either team.

#46. Army at Buffalo – Army is 3-0, guys. Always root for the service academies to be good, and while I’ve gotten to the point where I kind of take Navy and Air Force for granted – they’re always pretty good – seeing Army obliterate opponents is actually pretty cool.

#45. New Mexico State at Troy – Like the Georgia fans mentioned above, Clemson fans may tell you Troy is pretty good. Still no, although they should move to 3-1 in this game.

#44. Ball State at Florida Atlantic – One of America’s greatest and most historic rivalry games.

#43. Charlotte at Temple – Even bigger than Ball State/Florida Atlantic!

#42. Southern Miss at UTEP – USM should win this by a lot.

#41. San Jose State at Iowa State – No team really makes me sadder, at least in that fake sadness kind of way – there’s nothing particularly tragic or real-world sad here, than Iowa State. They should be better than they always are, and now they have a coach who left a pretty sweet gig at Toledo (sweet in the sense that he had found a winning formula there) to move to Ames. So far they’ve lost to an FCS team and lost their Power 5 games by scores of 42-3 and 41-20. Oof. The Cyclones need a win in this one, and Vegas has them as a 6.5 fave, but I actually think SJSU should be favored.

#40. Tulsa at Fresno State – It could be mildly interesting to followers of Group of Five programs, but not to most.

#39. Nevada at Purdue – One of the weekend’s most even matchups, it’s also one of its least important and talent-barren. But hey, it could be really close, which is something.

#38. South Carolina at Kentucky – For purposes of brand management, the SEC would prefer you ignore this game. However, I think it could be a good test. Not for the teams, for your capacity to enjoy any kind of football game.

#37. Appalachian State at Akron – I think it’s time to possibly accept that this Appalachian State team just isn’t as good as we thought it’d be. I think they’re still good as far as Sun Belt teams go, but it’s highly unlikely to match last year’s App State, which was a top 40, maybe top 30 team. Akron has been the nation’s most explosive team this year on an opponent-adjusted, per play basis. The Zips have been decent at stopping the run so far, and App State could be without star RB Marcus Cox. There’s a lot that could make this game interesting, but it’s not all that important.

#36. Miami (OH) at Cincinnati – Yes, it’s the in-state rivalry you’ve been waiting all year for.

#35. Mississippi State at Massachusetts – Goofiest SEC road trip of the year?

#34. Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee – Vegas expects a close game in MTSU’s favor, and I expect a closer game in Louisiana Tech’s favor. Either way, if you can get past how meaningless the game is in the big sense, it could be pretty entertaining.

#33. Bowling Green at Memphis – In my week 1 preview, I expressed concern over Bowling Green’s hire to replace Dino Babers. After a 1-2 start wherein they haven’t broken the 30 point barrier, my concerns have not been dispelled.

#32. Air Force at Utah State – A tale of two approaches. Utah State cares most about explosiveness. On standard downs, USU ranks 20th in offensive points per play and 13th in defensive points per play allowed. Their back 7 defenders in particular cause more havoc than most defenses. You can move the chains on USU, but you’re unlikely to bust a big play, and they may be waiting for an interception when you try. Unfortunately for the Aggies, Air Force doesn’t mess with big plays, not when efficiency is the name of their game. The Falcon offense is 12th in success rate, and the defense is 6th so far. It could be a close game, but I like Air Force’s ability to put together long drives in any game, especially one against a defense with bend-don’t-break tendencies like USU.

#31. Colorado State at Minnesota – It’s a rebuilding year for CSU, so Minnesota should roll by several scores.

#30. Syracuse at Connecticut – Another game where the Vegas favorite (UConn) doesn’t match up with mine. The Orange has played well in every game, but they’ve played two pretty good teams so far. UConn has laid an egg in 2 of their 3 games so far, but had the luxury of winning both, because one was against Maine and the other against a pretty screwed up Virginia team. UConn’s best performance was in their loss to Navy.

#29. Houston at Texas State – Houston’s a team in the spotlight, so this game only becomes interesting if it’s close, in which case it’s very interesting.

#28.  TCU at SMU – It’s the Iron Skillet Rivalry! TCU leads all-time 48-40-7. In 1935, this game decided the SWC title and got the “Game of the Century” label, as SMU used a punt fake that went for 50 yards and a TD to shock Sammy Baugh and the Horned Frogs. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say this year’s game will be a bit lower in terms of stakes, but hey, rivalries are cool.

#27. Central Michigan at Virginia – The offseason’s weirdest coaching hire, Bronco Mendenhall, hasn’t exactly had amazing results so far. Central Michigan may be lucky, but they’re not awful. Should be close.

#26. Iowa at Rutgers – The Big Tenniest of all Big Ten matchups. Unexciting, decided by multiple touchdowns, and kicking off at noon.

#25. Wake Forest at Indiana – This is the 2nd half of a home & home series these two scheduled, with Indiana winning at Wake last year 31-24. It’s a sweet little arrangement, as both get a shot at winning something, and afterwards, they can commiserate about being forgotten members of their conference, state, and general public awareness.

#24. Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky – All Vandy attempts anymore is defense. All WKU has ever attempted was offense. When the Hilltoppers have the ball, this could be fun to watch. When they don’t, I’m not entirely sure what happens. Do players stand on the field just looking at each other confusedly until the sides are rested? Do the teams just stay on the sidelines and make angry faces at the other bench? I’m pretty sure if you try to watch, your screen just goes to static.

#23. California at Arizona State – Both are undefeated against Texas schools this year, with Cal beating Texas and ASU beating Texas Tech in a game which, in order to preserve player health, was granted a waiver by the NCAA to be played on NCAA14 on the Playstation 3. ASU representative Sparky669 defeated Tech gamer ToLeachHisPwnd 68-55 by running the same plays over and over again, allowing ASU RB Kallen Ballage to score 8 touchdowns. This record-breaking scorefest would never happen in real life, as real life defenders and coaches would have enough competence to put a hat on Ballage after, oh, his 5th touchdown or so.

#22. Boise State at Oregon State – In a year or two, this might be good, but I don’t think OSU is where they need to be to compete with Boise just yet.

#21. Georgia Southern at Western Michigan – In Statesboro last year, GS beat WMU 43-17. The Eagles haven’t looked great so far (23-21 over ULM), and WMU is pretty loaded with talent, so maybe the Broncos can return the favor now that the game is in their backyard.

#20. East Carolina at Virginia Tech – ECU has the nation’s longest winning streak against a Power 5 conference that the team isn’t a member of, having beaten the ACC in their last 6 meetings. That’s a pretty impressive streak, but I have to imagine it comes to an end in Blacksburg this weekend. VT seems to have corrected the issues that ailed them in Bristol, whipping Boston College 49-0, and ECU is fresh off a loss to the fightin’ Muschamps of South Carolina.

#19. Kent State at Alabama – Alabama doesn’t have the top spot this week, because unlike Western Kentucky, this opponent is legitimately bad. If Bama doesn’t win by 40, Saban’s head may explode.

#18. Duke at Notre Dame – It’d be more interesting if Duke had their QB, Thomas Sirk, but he’s still attempting to recover from Achilles surgery. FR Daniel Jones looked great against NC A&T, but hasn’t been good since. Notre Dame should roll.

#17. Colorado at Oregon – It was pretty neat when Colorado gave Michigan a scare for a minute or two last week, and I’d love to think it could happen again, but I’m doubtful. Oregon’s looking to bounce back as well, and this is the type of game Oregon of old would win 56-24.

#16. Nebraska at Northwestern – Nebraska has had a pretty impressive start. Northwestern hasn’t. I expect both trends to continue.

#15. Washington at Arizona – I’d be concerned for Arizona in this game anyway, but with no word on whether QB Anu Solomon or RB Nick Wilson will play, the concern grows. Backup QB Brandon Dawkins has been one of the nation’s most dynamic QBs since he took over, but dynamic against Grambling and Hawaii is one thing. Dynamic against the Pac-12 North favorite is another.

#14. Pittsburgh at North Carolina – I don’t know that there will be a more fun division this year than the ACC Coastal. I think 5 of the 7 teams are capable of winning the division – Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Tech. Of those 5, I think Georgia Tech’s odds are the longest, but they’re not that far behind the rest of the group. Overall, it’s a collection of flawed but pretty good teams, and seeing the race for the division crown unfold could be really interesting. This game, naturally, would be the first in a season-long slate of important games for that race.

#13. Louisville at Marshall – Louisville, and Lamar Jackson in particular, is now required viewing every time they’re on television, even against Marshall.

#12. USC at Utah – It’s a Pac-12 South battle that should matter, just not as much as we thought it would back when we thought USC might be kind of good.

#11. BYU vs West Virginia – BYU’s only matchup against a Big XII school takes place not in a Big XII stadium but at FedEx Field. I think this could be a fun and remarkably close game. Then again, any time Holgorsen is involved, a 40 point decision in either direction can’t really be a surprise.

#10. Oklahoma State at Baylor – Baylor is starting to resemble a contender in the Big XII, so I’d love for that to be shut down as soon as possible. No better team than a down on their luck Cowpoke squad that could use a big win.

#9. Florida at Tennessee – Both teams are hyping this one, probably due to underlying fears that it will all go downhill afterwards. Tennessee seems either unwilling to or incapable of playing like the team everyone expected them to be, and I have yet to really see a good explanation why – “App State is pretty good!” Eh, not really, not this year, and especially not that night. “We were looking past Ohio!” See, that’s not a thing that good teams, you know, do. They’ve got one half against VaTech to hang their hat on. That said, I’m not suggesting that Tennessee won’t fire on all cylinders this weekend. Florida is the same old Florida, it seems. An underwhelming passing game, a solid enough running game, and otherworldly defense. The passing game may take a step back this weekend – starter Luke Del Rio is out with a sprained knee, meaning the start goes to Senior QB Austin Appleby. You may remember Appleby from his days at Purdue, where he started 11 games, or you may not, because like the rest of Purdue, Appleby was pretty awful in that time. For Appleby to have some success, I think it’s vital that WR Antonio Callaway‘s injured quad is healed. He’s currently listed as probable, and with 11.2 yards per target this year, 15.5 per catch, a 72% catch rate, and a 61.1% success rate, Callaway is the guy who can take advantage of Cameron Sutton‘s absence. I am not convinced either team is a contender on the national level, but in a wide open SEC East populated by flawed teams, this might decide the thing, and it has the potential to be a close, exciting game, just like UF/UT battles of old.

#8. Florida State at South Florida – FSU will look to get back in its groove against a very good, upstart USF squad that is well-coached and chomping at the bit for an opportunity to take a big step forward. This is it.

#7. Wisconsin at Michigan State – Two good defenses will try to outslug the other in what could be an old-fashioned Big Ten Punt, Punt, and Punt competition. Should be close.

#6. Arkansas vs Texas A&M – These are two darkhorse contenders for the SEC West crown, and with a loss in this game, held at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, I think it’ll be hard for the loser to win that crown. Bret Bielema has replaced Les Miles as the new Wildcard, Bitches! coach in the SEC, the guy who is the sole proprietor of southeastern insanity. That alone makes this worth watching.

#5. Penn State at Michigan – I think the knock on Michigan is that they really haven’t had a great schedule so far, even though they’ve looked GREAT against it. Penn State isn’t a national contender by any means, but they’re quality competition, so Michigan can hush the haters a bit here, or, with a less than stellar result, give them some validation.

#4. Clemson at Georgia Tech – This rivalry gave birth to one of College Football’s quirkier and more interesting traditions. In the late 70’s, GT decided to end their annual rivalry with Clemson, and one Tech official even remarked that the cancellation of the series would not have a negative impact on the Atlanta economy. Clemson, to show their ability to affect the economy, started printing tiger paws on $2 bills and spending them exclusively on their road trips to Atlanta. As local business started filling up with marked $2 bills, the economic impact was understood. Clemson still embraces the tradition for big road games each year, so if you’re an Atlantan who runs across a stamped $2 bill in the next few weeks, you’ll know where it came from. Clemson ought to win this game, but Tech has a knack for making other teams stupid and bad at football. Look at Florida State last year, for example. Throw in my standard warning about Thursday goofiness, and yeah, this is worth keeping an eye on.

#3. Georgia at Ole Miss – Neither has looked great this year, but both are loaded with talent and in search of some kind of positive statement. One fanbase is going to feel much better about things by 4 PM on Saturday. Odds are it’s Ole Miss, but there’s enough volatility in performance on both sidelines to make anything possible.

#2. LSU at Auburn – Neither of these two teams seems to have an idea of what it wants to be offensively, so why should I? This is always a huge game, even when it’s not, if that makes sense. Also, does Auburn have ANY road games scheduled this season?

#1. Stanford at UCLA – With USC playing pretty disappointingly so far, this could very well be a preview of the Pac-12 championship game. Stanford looks a lot like the new, normal Stanford so far – a very good team that should be its conference favorite and a fringe contender for a playoff spot. UCLA has a one-score loss, on the road, to a currently undefeated SEC school, so life isn’t particularly bad for the Bruins either. It’s not a season-defining game, but it’s a very big one.